Case study

ABDL

ALLIED BLEND N DISTILS L

Mixed signals1y model +30.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

ALLIED BLEND N DISTILS L (ABDL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is ABDL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

ALLIED BLEND N DISTILS L (ABDL) trades at ₹632,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100.

On the numbers, ALLIED BLEND N DISTILS L (ABDL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing expensive at 77.2× earnings, ROE of 14.3%, a 74% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

ABDL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹17,685 Cr
Current price
₹632
P/E ratio
77.2×
P/B ratio
10.64×
Book value
₹59
Dividend yield
0.86%
ROCE
18.4%
ROE
14.3%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is ABDL overvalued? ABDL P/E vs its sector

ABDL's P/E of 77.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.86% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

ABDL P/E
77.2×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
ABDL div yield
0.86%
Peer median yield
1.65%

ABDL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.9y of ABDL history (35%/yr drift, 41%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
ABDL 2027₹490₹823₹1,391+30%
ABDL 2028₹516₹1,087₹2,241+72%
ABDL 2029₹577₹1,411₹3,500+124%
ABDL 2030₹654₹1,856₹5,378+194%
ABDL 2031₹751₹2,435₹7,882+286%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability ABDL goes up, or doubles?

74%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
93%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
76%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,263 within 5 years

The bull case for ABDL

  • A healthy 14.3% return on equity.
  • Strong ROCE (18.4%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 74% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹823 (+30%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹3,500.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 77.2× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • A steep 10.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹577.

ABDL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 1.9 years ABDL compounded at 35%/year with annualized volatility of 41%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹490₹1,391, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

ABDL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 1.9 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
30.5%
80% range₹490–₹1,391
P(price ↑)74%
P(price 2×)15%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
123.5%
80% range₹577–₹3,500
P(price ↑)87%
P(price 2×)56%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
285.7%
80% range₹751–₹7,882
P(price ↑)93%
P(price 2×)76%

ABDL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
ABDL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds ABDL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the ABDL price target & forecast page.

ABDL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. ABDL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

ABDL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ABDL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST33.7%3.0×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST33.7%3.0×
DhanCHEAPEST33.7%3.0×

Compare every broker on the ABDL MTF page.

ABDL vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
ABDL (this stock)77.2×0.86%₹17,685 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About ALLIED BLEND N DISTILS L: sector, index & market-cap context

ALLIED BLEND N DISTILS L (ABDL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹17,685 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the ABDL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of ALLIED BLEND N DISTILS L's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

ABDL analysis, FAQs

Is ALLIED BLEND N DISTILS L (ABDL) a good buy?

On the numbers, ALLIED BLEND N DISTILS L (ABDL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing expensive at 77.2× earnings, ROE of 14.3%, a 74% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is ABDL overvalued or undervalued?

ABDL trades at 77.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the ABDL share price target for 2031?

ABDL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,435, with an 80% range of ₹751₹7,882 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability ABDL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of ABDL reaching ₹1,263 (2×) within 5 years is 76%.

What is the bull case for ABDL?

A healthy 14.3% return on equity. Strong ROCE (18.4%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 74% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹823 (+30%).

What are the risks in ABDL?

A rich 77.2× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 10.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on ABDL