IRFC
Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (IRFC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is IRFC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (IRFC) trades at ₹89,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.
On the numbers, Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (IRFC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing fairly valued at 16.1× earnings, ROE of 12.8%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
IRFC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How IRFC ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- IRFC's market cap of 1.16L Cr ranks in the top 4% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IRFC's book value of ₹43 ranks in the 30th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IRFC's promoter holding of 82.9% ranks in the top 2% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IRFC's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 3.0% ranks in the 32nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IRFC's 3-year revenue growth of 5.0% ranks in the 35th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for IRFC, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.
Is IRFC overvalued? IRFC P/E vs its NBFC
IRFC's P/E of 16.1× sits below the NBFC peer median of 23.2×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 2.37% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.97%.
IRFC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 5.4y of IRFC history (24%/yr drift, 33%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRFC 2027 | ₹62 | ₹95 | ₹145 | +7% |
| IRFC 2028 | ₹56 | ₹102 | ₹184 | +14% |
| IRFC 2029 | ₹52 | ₹109 | ₹226 | +22% |
| IRFC 2030 | ₹50 | ₹116 | ₹272 | +31% |
| IRFC 2031 | ₹48 | ₹124 | ₹319 | +40% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability IRFC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for IRFC
- IRFC's P/E of 16.1x is lower than 71% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IRFC's return on equity of 12.8% ranks in the 63rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IRFC's dividend yield of 2.4% ranks in the 90th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹226.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹52.
IRFC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 5.4 years IRFC compounded at 24%/year with annualized volatility of 33%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹62-₹145, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
IRFC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
IRFC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds IRFC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the IRFC price target & forecast page.
IRFC Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. IRFC scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
IRFC MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy IRFC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 27.37% | 3.7× |
| Zerodha | 26.30% | 3.8× |
| Groww | 26.38% | 3.8× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 24.00% | 4.2× |
| Kotak Neo | 25.00% | 4.0× |
| Paytm Money | 24.12% | 4.1× |
| Pocketful | 31.32% | 3.2× |
| Fyers | 32.26% | 3.1× |
| Anand Rathi | 30.84% | 3.2× |
| Bajaj Broking | 27.00% | 3.7× |
| Share India | 30.97% | 3.2× |
Compare every broker on the IRFC MTF page.
IRFC vs peers,NBFC comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| IRFC (this stock) | 16.1× | 2.37% | ₹1.16L Cr |
| BAJFINANCE | 32.8× | 0.50% | ₹6.71L Cr |
| BAJAJFINSV | 31.3× | 0.07% | ₹3.22L Cr |
| RECLTD | 6.0× | 5.05% | ₹96,639 Cr |
| PFC | 5.3× | 4.42% | ₹1.39L Cr |
| SHRIRAMFIN | 23.2× | 0.97% | ₹2.62L Cr |
| CHOLAFIN | 27.7× | 0.11% | ₹1.59L Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026
About Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (IRFC) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the NBFC sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.16L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the IRFC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
IRFC analysis, FAQs
Is Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (IRFC) a good buy?
On the numbers, Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (IRFC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing fairly valued at 16.1× earnings, ROE of 12.8%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is IRFC overvalued or undervalued?
IRFC trades at 16.1× earnings versus a peer median of 23.2×, so it screens cheaper than its NBFC peers.
What is the IRFC share price target for 2031?
IRFC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹124, with an 80% range of ₹48-₹319 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability IRFC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of IRFC reaching ₹178 (2×) within 5 years is 32%.
What is the bull case for IRFC?
IRFC's P/E of 16.1x is lower than 71% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. IRFC's return on equity of 12.8% ranks in the 63rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. IRFC's dividend yield of 2.4% ranks in the 90th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in IRFC?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.