Case study

RELIANCE

Reliance Industries Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +11.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

60Score

Reliance Industries Limited (RELIANCE) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is RELIANCE a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Reliance Industries Limited (RELIANCE) trades at ₹1,335,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100.

On the numbers, Reliance Industries Limited (RELIANCE) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing fairly valued at 24.2× earnings, ROE of 8.9%, a 69% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

RELIANCE fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹18.06L Cr
Current price
₹1,335
P/E ratio
24.2×
P/B ratio
2.00×
Book value
₹668
Dividend yield
0.45%
ROCE
10.3%
ROE
8.9%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How RELIANCE ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is RELIANCE overvalued? RELIANCE P/E vs its Energy

RELIANCE's P/E of 24.2× sits above the Energy peer median of 10.8×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.45% dividend yield is below the peer median of 3.56%.

RELIANCE P/E
24.2×
Peer median P/E
10.8×
RELIANCE div yield
0.45%
Peer median yield
3.56%

RELIANCE share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of RELIANCE history (18%/yr drift, 21%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
RELIANCE 2027₹1,139₹1,484₹1,934+11%
RELIANCE 2028₹1,135₹1,650₹2,399+24%
RELIANCE 2029₹1,163₹1,835₹2,894+37%
RELIANCE 2030₹1,203₹2,040₹3,460+53%
RELIANCE 2031₹1,253₹2,268₹4,107+70%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability RELIANCE goes up, or doubles?

69%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
88%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
36%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,670 within 5 years

The bull case for RELIANCE

  • RELIANCE's P/E of 24.2x is lower than 55% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 69% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,484 (+11%).
  • Relatively low volatility (21%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,894.

The bear case & risks

  • RELIANCE's return on equity of 8.9% ranks in the 43rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,163.

RELIANCE volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years RELIANCE compounded at 18%/year with annualized volatility of 21%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,139-₹1,934, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

RELIANCE price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
11.2%
80% range₹1,139-₹1,934
P(price ↑)69%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
37.5%
80% range₹1,163-₹2,894
P(price ↑)82%
P(price 2×)15%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
69.9%
80% range₹1,253-₹4,107
P(price ↑)88%
P(price 2×)36%

RELIANCE price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
RELIANCE simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds RELIANCE hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the RELIANCE price target & forecast page.

RELIANCE Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. RELIANCE scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

RELIANCE MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy RELIANCE with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox23.00%4.3×
Zerodha22.60%4.4×
Groww22.56%4.4×
Dhan22.00%4.5×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST20.00%5.0×
Paytm MoneyCHEAPEST20.00%5.0×
Pocketful26.50%3.8×
Fyers27.03%3.7×
Anand Rathi26.50%3.8×
Bajaj Broking23.00%4.3×
Share India26.50%3.8×

Compare every broker on the RELIANCE MTF page.

RELIANCE vs peers,Energy comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
RELIANCE (this stock)24.2×0.45%₹18.06L Cr
BPCL9.0×5.45%₹1.39L Cr
ONGC6.9×5.13%₹3.00L Cr
IOC6.0×5.75%₹2.02L Cr
GAIL11.6×2.88%₹1.14L Cr
IGL13.7×2.14%₹21,272 Cr
PETRONET10.8×3.56%₹42,090 Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About Reliance Industries Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Reliance Industries Limited (RELIANCE) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Energy sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹18.06L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the RELIANCE Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Reliance Industries Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

RELIANCE analysis, FAQs

Is Reliance Industries Limited (RELIANCE) a good buy?

On the numbers, Reliance Industries Limited (RELIANCE) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing fairly valued at 24.2× earnings, ROE of 8.9%, a 69% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is RELIANCE overvalued or undervalued?

RELIANCE trades at 24.2× earnings versus a peer median of 10.8×, so it screens richer than its Energy peers.

What is the RELIANCE share price target for 2031?

RELIANCE's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,268, with an 80% range of ₹1,253-₹4,107 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability RELIANCE doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of RELIANCE reaching ₹2,670 (2×) within 5 years is 36%.

What is the bull case for RELIANCE?

RELIANCE's P/E of 24.2x is lower than 55% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 69% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,484 (+11%). Relatively low volatility (21%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.

What are the risks in RELIANCE?

RELIANCE's return on equity of 8.9% ranks in the 43rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on RELIANCE