RELIANCE
Reliance
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Reliance (RELIANCE) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is RELIANCE a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Reliance (RELIANCE) trades at ₹1,326,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100.
On the numbers, Reliance (RELIANCE) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100, weighing fairly valued at 23.1× earnings, ROE of 8.9%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
The Downstox take on RELIANCE
The puzzle with Reliance is that the market pays a P/E above 23 for a business whose ROE sits below 9 percent and ROCE near 10, returns you would normally expect from a sleepy utility, not a premium-priced conglomerate. You are essentially paying upfront for retail and telecom potential while the consolidated numbers still carry heavy, low-return energy capital. The thin 0.45 percent yield and a middling Piotroski 4 say cash is going into building, not returning. Watch whether returns on all that invested capital actually climb toward the multiple, or the multiple drifts toward the returns.
Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts. Information, not investment advice.
RELIANCE fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is RELIANCE overvalued? RELIANCE P/E vs its Energy
RELIANCE's P/E of 23.1× sits above the Energy peer median of 11.0×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.45% dividend yield is below the peer median of 4.23%.
RELIANCE share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of RELIANCE history (-4%/yr drift, 21%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RELIANCE 2027 | ₹951 | ₹1,244 | ₹1,634 | -6% |
| RELIANCE 2028 | ₹799 | ₹1,165 | ₹1,708 | -12% |
| RELIANCE 2029 | ₹681 | ₹1,093 | ₹1,756 | -18% |
| RELIANCE 2030 | ₹600 | ₹1,024 | ₹1,771 | -23% |
| RELIANCE 2031 | ₹528 | ₹961 | ₹1,777 | -28% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability RELIANCE goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for RELIANCE
- A 23.1× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- Relatively low volatility (21%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,756.
The bear case & risks
- Return on equity is a soft 8.9%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹681.
RELIANCE volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years RELIANCE compounded at -4%/year with annualized volatility of 21%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹951–₹1,634, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
RELIANCE price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
RELIANCE price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds RELIANCE hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the RELIANCE price target & forecast page.
RELIANCE Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. RELIANCE scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
RELIANCE MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy RELIANCE with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 26.5% | 3.8× |
| Zerodha | 22.6% | 4.4× |
| Groww | 22.6% | 4.4× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 22.0% | 4.5× |
Compare every broker on the RELIANCE MTF page.
RELIANCE vs peers,Energy comparison
About Reliance: sector, index & market-cap context
Reliance (RELIANCE) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Energy sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹17.95L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the RELIANCE Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Reliance's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
RELIANCE analysis, FAQs
Is Reliance (RELIANCE) a good buy?
On the numbers, Reliance (RELIANCE) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100, weighing fairly valued at 23.1× earnings, ROE of 8.9%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is RELIANCE overvalued or undervalued?
RELIANCE trades at 23.1× earnings versus a peer median of 11.0×, so it screens richer than its Energy peers.
What is the RELIANCE share price target for 2031?
RELIANCE's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹961, with an 80% range of ₹528–₹1,777 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability RELIANCE doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of RELIANCE reaching ₹2,653 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.
What is the bull case for RELIANCE?
A 23.1× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. Relatively low volatility (21%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
What are the risks in RELIANCE?
Return on equity is a soft 8.9%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.