INFY
Infosys
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Infosys (INFY) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is INFY a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Infosys (INFY) trades at ₹1,065,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 74/100.
On the numbers, Infosys (INFY) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 74/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.4× earnings, ROE of 31.9%, a 21% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
The Downstox take on INFY
The real debate here is why a business earning 31.9% on equity and 40% on capital trades at a single-digit-ish multiple closer to 14 than to the premium India IT usually commands. That gap, plus a yield north of 4%, says the market is treating Infosys less like a compounder and more like a mature cash machine where growth, not quality, is the question. The capital efficiency is rare and real; what to watch is whether demand recovers enough to justify it, since a middling Piotroski score hints the recent operating trend is not as clean as the headline returns.
Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts. Information, not investment advice.
INFY fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is INFY overvalued? INFY P/E vs its IT
INFY's P/E of 14.4× sits below the IT peer median of 16.2×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 4.51% dividend yield is above the peer median of 4.03%.
INFY share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of INFY history (-18%/yr drift, 27%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFY 2027 | ₹607 | ₹855 | ₹1,207 | -20% |
| INFY 2028 | ₹426 | ₹691 | ₹1,119 | -35% |
| INFY 2029 | ₹308 | ₹554 | ₹1,005 | -48% |
| INFY 2030 | ₹226 | ₹446 | ₹881 | -58% |
| INFY 2031 | ₹168 | ₹356 | ₹766 | -67% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability INFY goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for INFY
- Trades at just 14.4× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- High return on equity (31.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (40.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Pays a 4.5% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,005.
The bear case & risks
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 21% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹308.
INFY volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years INFY compounded at -18%/year with annualized volatility of 27%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹607–₹1,207, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
INFY price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
INFY price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds INFY hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the INFY price target & forecast page.
INFY Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. INFY scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
INFY MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy INFY with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 29.1% | 3.4× |
| Zerodha | 24.8% | 4.0× |
| Groww | 24.7% | 4.0× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 22.1% | 4.5× |
Compare every broker on the INFY MTF page.
INFY vs peers,IT comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| INFY (this stock) | 14.4× | 4.51% | ₹4.32L Cr |
| TCS | 14.7× | 3.01% | ₹7.69L Cr |
| HCLTECH | 17.7× | 4.78% | ₹3.07L Cr |
| WIPRO | 14.4× | 6.11% | ₹1.89L Cr |
| TECHM | 28.1× | 3.55% | ₹1.41L Cr |
| PERSISTENT | 39.7× | 0.72% | ₹76,699 Cr |
About Infosys: sector, index & market-cap context
Infosys (INFY) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the IT sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹4.32L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the INFY Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Infosys's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
INFY analysis, FAQs
Is Infosys (INFY) a good buy?
On the numbers, Infosys (INFY) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 74/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.4× earnings, ROE of 31.9%, a 21% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is INFY overvalued or undervalued?
INFY trades at 14.4× earnings versus a peer median of 16.2×, so it screens cheaper than its IT peers.
What is the INFY share price target for 2031?
INFY's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹356, with an 80% range of ₹168–₹766 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability INFY doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of INFY reaching ₹2,131 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for INFY?
Trades at just 14.4× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. High return on equity (31.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (40.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in INFY?
The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 21% chance of finishing above today's price.