ITC
Itc Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Itc Limited (ITC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is ITC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Itc Limited (ITC) trades at ₹286,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 75/100.
On the numbers, Itc Limited (ITC) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 75/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.2× earnings, ROE of 29.3%, a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
ITC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How ITC ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- ITC's market cap of 3.58L Cr ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ITC's book value of ₹58 ranks in the 37th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ITC's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 3.0% ranks in the 32nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ITC's 3-year revenue growth of 4.0% ranks in the 32nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ITC's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03x is lower than 90% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
We do not hold a promoter holding figure for ITC, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.
Is ITC overvalued? ITC P/E vs its FMCG
ITC's P/E of 18.2× sits below the FMCG peer median of 51.0×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 5.07% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.90%.
ITC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of ITC history (2%/yr drift, 19%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITC 2027 | ₹237 | ₹300 | ₹380 | +5% |
| ITC 2028 | ₹224 | ₹314 | ₹439 | +10% |
| ITC 2029 | ₹218 | ₹329 | ₹496 | +15% |
| ITC 2030 | ₹216 | ₹344 | ₹549 | +20% |
| ITC 2031 | ₹213 | ₹361 | ₹610 | +26% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability ITC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for ITC
- ITC's P/E of 18.2x is lower than 66% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ITC's return on equity of 29.3% ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ITC's return on capital employed of 38.9% ranks in the top 4% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ITC's dividend yield of 5.1% ranks in the top 2% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Relatively low volatility (19%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹496.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹218.
ITC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years ITC compounded at 2%/year with annualized volatility of 19%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹237-₹380, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
ITC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
ITC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds ITC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the ITC price target & forecast page.
ITC Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. ITC scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
ITC MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ITC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 23.00% | 4.3× |
| Zerodha | 22.60% | 4.4× |
| Groww | 22.56% | 4.4× |
| Dhan | 22.00% | 4.5× |
| Kotak NeoCHEAPEST | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Paytm MoneyCHEAPEST | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Pocketful | 26.50% | 3.8× |
| Fyers | 27.03% | 3.7× |
| Anand Rathi | 26.50% | 3.8× |
| Bajaj Broking | 23.00% | 4.3× |
| Share India | 26.50% | 3.8× |
Compare every broker on the ITC MTF page.
ITC vs peers,FMCG comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| ITC (this stock) | 18.2× | 5.07% | ₹3.58L Cr |
| HINDUNILVR | 44.7× | 1.96% | ₹4.92L Cr |
| NESTLEIND | 80.1× | 0.78% | ₹2.97L Cr |
| TATACONSUM | 64.9× | 0.92% | ₹1.07L Cr |
| BRITANNIA | 51.0× | 1.64% | ₹1.33L Cr |
| DABUR | 36.7× | 2.01% | ₹72,732 Cr |
| GODREJCP | 51.8× | 1.90% | ₹1.07L Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026
About Itc Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Itc Limited (ITC) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the FMCG sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹3.58L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the ITC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Itc Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
ITC analysis, FAQs
Is Itc Limited (ITC) a good buy?
On the numbers, Itc Limited (ITC) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 75/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.2× earnings, ROE of 29.3%, a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is ITC overvalued or undervalued?
ITC trades at 18.2× earnings versus a peer median of 51.0×, so it screens cheaper than its FMCG peers.
What is the ITC share price target for 2031?
ITC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹361, with an 80% range of ₹213-₹610 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability ITC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of ITC reaching ₹572 (2×) within 5 years is 13%.
What is the bull case for ITC?
ITC's P/E of 18.2x is lower than 66% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. ITC's return on equity of 29.3% ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. ITC's return on capital employed of 38.9% ranks in the top 4% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in ITC?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.