ITC
ITC
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
ITC (ITC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is ITC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
ITC (ITC) trades at ₹291,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 69/100.
On the numbers, ITC (ITC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 69/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.4× earnings, ROE of 29.3%, a 16% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
The Downstox take on ITC
ITC reads like a cash machine first and a growth story second: a near-5% yield, ROCE close to 39%, and a P/E under 18 say the market treats it as a slow, dependable dividend payer rather than a compounder. The real question is whether that low multiple is a bargain or a fair verdict on muted reinvestment appetite. The Piotroski score of 4 is the odd note against such high returns, so watch the underlying trend in margins, cash conversion and debt rather than the headline yield, which can lull you.
Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts. Information, not investment advice.
ITC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is ITC overvalued? ITC P/E vs its FMCG
ITC's P/E of 17.4× sits below the FMCG peer median of 49.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 4.98% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.88%.
ITC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of ITC history (-17%/yr drift, 19%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITC 2027 | ₹189 | ₹241 | ₹308 | -17% |
| ITC 2028 | ₹141 | ₹199 | ₹280 | -32% |
| ITC 2029 | ₹107 | ₹164 | ₹251 | -44% |
| ITC 2030 | ₹83 | ₹136 | ₹224 | -53% |
| ITC 2031 | ₹65 | ₹113 | ₹196 | -61% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability ITC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for ITC
- A 17.4× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- High return on equity (29.3%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (38.9%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Pays a 5.0% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Relatively low volatility (19%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹251.
The bear case & risks
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 16% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹107.
ITC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years ITC compounded at -17%/year with annualized volatility of 19%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹189–₹308, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
ITC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
ITC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds ITC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the ITC price target & forecast page.
ITC Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. ITC scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
ITC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ITC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 26.5% | 3.8× |
| Zerodha | 22.6% | 4.4× |
| Groww | 22.6% | 4.4× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 22.0% | 4.5× |
Compare every broker on the ITC MTF page.
ITC vs peers,FMCG comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| ITC (this stock) | 17.4× | 4.98% | ₹3.64L Cr |
| HINDUNILVR | 33.7× | 1.88% | ₹5.13L Cr |
| NESTLEIND | 79.4× | 0.86% | ₹2.70L Cr |
| TATACONSUM | 71.7× | 0.90% | ₹1.10L Cr |
| BRITANNIA | 49.7× | 1.73% | ₹1.26L Cr |
| DABUR | 39.3× | 1.95% | ₹74,879 Cr |
| GODREJCP | 51.4× | 1.96% | ₹1.04L Cr |
About ITC: sector, index & market-cap context
ITC (ITC) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the FMCG sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹3.64L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the ITC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of ITC's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
ITC analysis, FAQs
Is ITC (ITC) a good buy?
On the numbers, ITC (ITC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 69/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.4× earnings, ROE of 29.3%, a 16% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is ITC overvalued or undervalued?
ITC trades at 17.4× earnings versus a peer median of 49.7×, so it screens cheaper than its FMCG peers.
What is the ITC share price target for 2031?
ITC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹113, with an 80% range of ₹65–₹196 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability ITC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of ITC reaching ₹583 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for ITC?
A 17.4× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. High return on equity (29.3%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (38.9%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in ITC?
The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 16% chance of finishing above today's price.