▦FCF Projection, Rs Cr
Value Breakdown
Scenario Analysis
▦Sensitivity Analysis (Price per Share)
| Growth (rows) / WACC (columns) | 9.38% WACC | 10.38% WACC | 11.38% WACC | 12.38% WACC | 13.38% WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | ₹534.93 | ₹457.88 | ₹399.43 | ₹353.64 | ₹316.82 |
| 11.00% | ₹557.58 | ₹477.00 | ₹415.89 | ₹368.01 | ₹329.52 |
| 12.00% | ₹581.02 | ₹496.78 | ₹432.91 | ₹382.87 | ₹342.65 |
| 13.00% | ₹605.28 | ₹517.25 | ₹450.51 | ₹398.23 | ₹356.23 |
| 14.00% | ₹630.37 | ₹538.42 | ₹468.71 | ₹414.12 | ₹370.25 |
Cells are shown as model values only. The comparison against the market price needs a live quote.
What is a two-stage DCF?
A discounted cash flow (DCF) model values a company by projecting its future free cash flows (FCFs) and discounting them back to today using the company’s weighted average cost of capital (WACC). A two-stage model splits the forecast into a high-growth phase (typically 5 years) and a fade phase (another 5 years) before applying a terminal value at a perpetuity growth rate. The sum of the present-value FCFs plus the present-value terminal value gives enterprise value (EV). Dividing by shares outstanding gives the intrinsic value per share.
How to read the sensitivity table
The matrix above shows how the per-share intrinsic value changes when WACC (the discount rate) and growth rate are perturbed by ±2%. The central cell is your base case. The colour signals whether each combination produces an intrinsic value above (violet) or below (slate) the live market price. A robust thesis keeps most of the matrix above the market price.
Why margin of safety matters
DCF outputs depend on inputs that nobody knows precisely - five years out, growth, margins and capex are educated guesses at best. The Monte Carlo tab shows the distribution of intrinsic values when those inputs are randomly perturbed. The P10-P90 band is a more honest range than the base estimate. Look for a stock where the market price is below the P25 of the distribution - that’s a real margin of safety.