ABFRL
Aditya Birla Fashion And Retail Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Aditya Birla Fashion And Retail Limited (ABFRL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is ABFRL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Aditya Birla Fashion And Retail Limited (ABFRL) trades at ₹63,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 19/100.
On the numbers, Aditya Birla Fashion And Retail Limited (ABFRL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 19/100, weighing expensive at 47.8× earnings, ROE of -13.6%, a 43% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
ABFRL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How ABFRL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- ABFRL's market cap of 7,729 Cr ranks in the 72nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ABFRL's book value of ₹48 ranks in the 32nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ABFRL's promoter holding of 46.6% ranks in the 25th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ABFRL's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of -6.0% ranks in the 23rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ABFRL's 3-year revenue growth of -13.0% ranks in the 8th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ABFRL's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06x is lower than 13% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is ABFRL overvalued? ABFRL P/E vs peers
ABFRL trades at 47.8× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
ABFRL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of ABFRL history (-9%/yr drift, 85%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABFRL 2027 | ₹19 | ₹55 | ₹158 | -14% |
| ABFRL 2028 | ₹10 | ₹47 | ₹222 | -26% |
| ABFRL 2029 | ₹6 | ₹40 | ₹257 | -36% |
| ABFRL 2030 | ₹4 | ₹35 | ₹293 | -45% |
| ABFRL 2031 | ₹3 | ₹30 | ₹323 | -53% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability ABFRL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for ABFRL
- Low price-to-book of 1.32×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹257.
The bear case & risks
- ABFRL's P/E of 47.8x is lower than 28% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ABFRL's Piotroski F-Score is 0/8. A screener percentile is not available for it right now.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 43% chance of finishing above today's price.
- High historical volatility (85%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹6.
ABFRL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years ABFRL compounded at -9%/year with annualized volatility of 85%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹19-₹158, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
ABFRL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
ABFRL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds ABFRL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the ABFRL price target & forecast page.
ABFRL Piotroski F-Score: 0/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. ABFRL scores 0/8, weak on the financial-strength checks.
ABFRL MTF margin & leverage across 9 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ABFRL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 9 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 32.69% | 3.1× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 32.65% | 3.1× |
| Groww | 32.73% | 3.1× |
| Dhan | 32.65% | 3.1× |
| Kotak Neo | 32.68% | 3.1× |
| Paytm Money | 38.69% | 2.6× |
| Pocketful | 33.00% | 3.0× |
| Anand RathiCHEAPEST | 32.65% | 3.1× |
| Share India | 32.73% | 3.1× |
Compare every broker on the ABFRL MTF page.
About Aditya Birla Fashion And Retail Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Aditya Birla Fashion And Retail Limited (ABFRL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹7,729 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the ABFRL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Aditya Birla Fashion And Retail Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
ABFRL analysis, FAQs
Is Aditya Birla Fashion And Retail Limited (ABFRL) a good buy?
On the numbers, Aditya Birla Fashion And Retail Limited (ABFRL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 19/100, weighing expensive at 47.8× earnings, ROE of -13.6%, a 43% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is ABFRL overvalued or undervalued?
ABFRL trades at 47.8× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the ABFRL share price target for 2031?
ABFRL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹30, with an 80% range of ₹3-₹323 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability ABFRL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of ABFRL reaching ₹127 (2×) within 5 years is 22%.
What is the bull case for ABFRL?
Low price-to-book of 1.32×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in ABFRL?
ABFRL's P/E of 47.8x is lower than 28% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. ABFRL's Piotroski F-Score is 0/8. A screener percentile is not available for it right now. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 43% chance of finishing above today's price.