ABFRL
Aditya Birla Fashion
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Aditya Birla Fashion (ABFRL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is ABFRL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Aditya Birla Fashion (ABFRL) trades at ₹61,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 19/100.
On the numbers, Aditya Birla Fashion (ABFRL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 19/100, weighing expensive at 47.8× earnings, ROE of -11.7%, a 8% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
ABFRL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is ABFRL overvalued? ABFRL P/E vs its sector
ABFRL's P/E of 47.8× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.
ABFRL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of ABFRL history (-84%/yr drift, 86%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABFRL 2027 | ₹6 | ₹18 | ₹55 | -70% |
| ABFRL 2028 | ₹1 | ₹5 | ₹26 | -91% |
| ABFRL 2029 | ₹0 | ₹2 | ₹11 | -97% |
| ABFRL 2030 | ₹0 | ₹0 | ₹4 | -99% |
| ABFRL 2031 | ₹0 | ₹0 | ₹2 | -100% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability ABFRL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for ABFRL
- Low price-to-book of 1.27×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹11.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 47.8× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- A low Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 8% chance of finishing above today's price.
- High historical volatility (86%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹0.
ABFRL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years ABFRL compounded at -84%/year with annualized volatility of 86%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹6–₹55, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
ABFRL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
ABFRL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds ABFRL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the ABFRL price target & forecast page.
ABFRL Piotroski F-Score: 1/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. ABFRL scores 1/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.
ABFRL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ABFRL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 33.0% | 3.0× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 33.0% | 3.0× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 33.0% | 3.0× |
Compare every broker on the ABFRL MTF page.
ABFRL vs peers,sector comparison
About Aditya Birla Fashion: sector, index & market-cap context
Aditya Birla Fashion (ABFRL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹7,389 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the ABFRL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Aditya Birla Fashion's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
ABFRL analysis, FAQs
Is Aditya Birla Fashion (ABFRL) a good buy?
On the numbers, Aditya Birla Fashion (ABFRL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 19/100, weighing expensive at 47.8× earnings, ROE of -11.7%, a 8% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is ABFRL overvalued or undervalued?
ABFRL trades at 47.8× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the ABFRL share price target for 2031?
ABFRL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹0, with an 80% range of ₹0–₹2 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability ABFRL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of ABFRL reaching ₹121 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for ABFRL?
Low price-to-book of 1.27×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in ABFRL?
A rich 47.8× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A low Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 8% chance of finishing above today's price.