Case study

ABLBL

Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands Limited

Tread carefully1y model +3.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

33Score

Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands Limited (ABLBL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is ABLBL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands Limited (ABLBL) trades at ₹94,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100.

On the numbers, Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands Limited (ABLBL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 53.7× earnings, ROE of 14.9%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

ABLBL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹11,456 Cr
Current price
₹94
P/E ratio
53.7×
P/B ratio
8.09×
Book value
₹12
Dividend yield
0.53%
ROCE
15.0%
ROE
14.9%
Piotroski F-Score
3/8

How ABLBL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold 3-year profit (PAT) growth or 3-year revenue growth figures for ABLBL, as of 9 Aug 2026, so those are not ranked here.

Is ABLBL overvalued? ABLBL P/E vs peers

ABLBL trades at 53.7× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

ABLBL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.1y of ABLBL history (-44%/yr drift, 35%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
ABLBL 2027₹62₹97₹151+3%
ABLBL 2028₹53₹100₹188+7%
ABLBL 2029₹48₹104₹225+10%
ABLBL 2030₹44₹107₹260+14%
ABLBL 2031₹40₹111₹303+18%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability ABLBL goes up, or doubles?

54%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
58%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
25%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹188 within 5 years

The bull case for ABLBL

  • ABLBL's return on equity of 14.9% ranks in the 71st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹225.

The bear case & risks

  • ABLBL's P/E of 53.7x is lower than 24% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 8.1× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • ABLBL's Piotroski F-Score of 3/8 ranks in the 15th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹48.

ABLBL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 1.1 years ABLBL compounded at -44%/year with annualized volatility of 35%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹62-₹151, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

ABLBL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 1.1 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
3.3%
80% range₹62-₹151
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
10.3%
80% range₹48-₹225
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)17%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
17.8%
80% range₹40-₹303
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)25%

ABLBL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
ABLBL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds ABLBL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the ABLBL price target & forecast page.

ABLBL Piotroski F-Score: 3/8, how financially strong is it?

3/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. ABLBL scores 3/8, weak on the financial-strength checks.

ABLBL MTF margin & leverage across 9 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ABLBL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 9 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox29.71%3.4×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST29.67%3.4×
Groww29.80%3.4×
DhanCHEAPEST29.67%3.4×
Kotak Neo40.00%2.5×
Paytm Money29.88%3.3×
Pocketful30.06%3.3×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST29.67%3.4×
Share India29.79%3.4×

Compare every broker on the ABLBL MTF page.

About Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands Limited (ABLBL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹11,456 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the ABLBL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

ABLBL analysis, FAQs

Is Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands Limited (ABLBL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands Limited (ABLBL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 53.7× earnings, ROE of 14.9%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is ABLBL overvalued or undervalued?

ABLBL trades at 53.7× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the ABLBL share price target for 2031?

ABLBL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹111, with an 80% range of ₹40-₹303 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability ABLBL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of ABLBL reaching ₹188 (2×) within 5 years is 25%.

What is the bull case for ABLBL?

ABLBL's return on equity of 14.9% ranks in the 71st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in ABLBL?

ABLBL's P/E of 53.7x is lower than 24% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 8.1× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. ABLBL's Piotroski F-Score of 3/8 ranks in the 15th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

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