Case study

AGARIND

Agarwal Industrial Corporation Limited

Tread carefully1y model +0.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

44Score

Agarwal Industrial Corporation Limited (AGARIND) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is AGARIND a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Agarwal Industrial Corporation Limited (AGARIND) trades at ₹515,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100.

On the numbers, Agarwal Industrial Corporation Limited (AGARIND) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.7× earnings, ROE of 6.6%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

AGARIND fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹770 Cr
Current price
₹515
P/E ratio
17.7×
P/B ratio
1.12×
Book value
₹461
Dividend yield
0.64%
ROCE
7.9%
ROE
6.6%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How AGARIND ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is AGARIND overvalued? AGARIND P/E vs peers

AGARIND trades at 17.7× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

AGARIND share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of AGARIND history (13%/yr drift, 47%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
AGARIND 2027₹283₹519₹951+1%
AGARIND 2028₹217₹524₹1,263+2%
AGARIND 2029₹182₹528₹1,534+3%
AGARIND 2030₹159₹533₹1,786+4%
AGARIND 2031₹138₹538₹2,100+5%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability AGARIND goes up, or doubles?

51%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
52%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
27%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,029 within 5 years

The bull case for AGARIND

  • AGARIND's P/E of 17.7x is lower than 67% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Low price-to-book of 1.12×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,534.

The bear case & risks

  • AGARIND's return on equity of 6.6% ranks in the 35th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (47%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹182.

AGARIND volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years AGARIND compounded at 13%/year with annualized volatility of 47%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹283-₹951, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

AGARIND price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
0.9%
80% range₹283-₹951
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)7%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
2.7%
80% range₹182-₹1,534
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)21%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
4.5%
80% range₹138-₹2,100
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)27%

AGARIND price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
AGARIND simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds AGARIND hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the AGARIND price target & forecast page.

AGARIND Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. AGARIND scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

AGARIND MTF margin & leverage across 7 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy AGARIND with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 7 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Zerodha50.00%2.0×
Groww39.91%2.5×
Dhan50.00%2.0×
Kotak Neo100.00%1.0×
Pocketful50.00%2.0×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST39.69%2.5×
Share India39.90%2.5×

Compare every broker on the AGARIND MTF page.

About Agarwal Industrial Corporation Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Agarwal Industrial Corporation Limited (AGARIND) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹770 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the AGARIND Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Agarwal Industrial Corporation Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

AGARIND analysis, FAQs

Is Agarwal Industrial Corporation Limited (AGARIND) a good buy?

On the numbers, Agarwal Industrial Corporation Limited (AGARIND) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.7× earnings, ROE of 6.6%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is AGARIND overvalued or undervalued?

AGARIND trades at 17.7× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the AGARIND share price target for 2031?

AGARIND's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹538, with an 80% range of ₹138-₹2,100 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability AGARIND doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of AGARIND reaching ₹1,029 (2×) within 5 years is 27%.

What is the bull case for AGARIND?

AGARIND's P/E of 17.7x is lower than 67% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. Low price-to-book of 1.12×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in AGARIND?

AGARIND's return on equity of 6.6% ranks in the 35th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (47%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on AGARIND