Case study

AGIIL

AGI INFRA LIMITED

Mixed signals1y model +1.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

53Score

AGI INFRA LIMITED (AGIIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is AGIIL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

AGI INFRA LIMITED (AGIIL) trades at ₹303,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100.

On the numbers, AGI INFRA LIMITED (AGIIL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing premium at 39.9× earnings, ROE of 25.0%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

AGIIL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹3,787 Cr
Current price
₹303
P/E ratio
39.9×
P/B ratio
8.15×
Book value
₹37
Dividend yield
0.03%
ROCE
20.1%
ROE
25.0%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How AGIIL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is AGIIL overvalued? AGIIL P/E vs peers

AGIIL trades at 39.9× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

AGIIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of AGIIL history (36%/yr drift, 53%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
AGIIL 2027₹157₹308₹607+2%
AGIIL 2028₹121₹314₹816+4%
AGIIL 2029₹99₹320₹1,034+6%
AGIIL 2030₹84₹327₹1,277+8%
AGIIL 2031₹72₹333₹1,533+10%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability AGIIL goes up, or doubles?

52%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
53%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
31%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹605 within 5 years

The bull case for AGIIL

  • AGIIL's return on equity of 25.0% ranks in the 90th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • AGIIL's return on capital employed of 20.1% ranks in the 80th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,034.

The bear case & risks

  • AGIIL's P/E of 39.9x is lower than 34% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 8.2× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • High historical volatility (53%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹99.

AGIIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years AGIIL compounded at 36%/year with annualized volatility of 53%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹157-₹607, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

AGIIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.9%
80% range₹157-₹607
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)10%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
5.9%
80% range₹99-₹1,034
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)24%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
10.1%
80% range₹72-₹1,533
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)31%

AGIIL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
AGIIL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds AGIIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the AGIIL price target & forecast page.

AGIIL Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. AGIIL scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

AGIIL MTF margin & leverage across 9 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy AGIIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 9 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox38.09%2.6×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST38.03%2.6×
Groww38.29%2.6×
DhanCHEAPEST38.03%2.6×
Kotak Neo40.00%2.5×
Paytm Money38.51%2.6×
Pocketful38.84%2.6×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST38.03%2.6×
Share India38.24%2.6×

Compare every broker on the AGIIL MTF page.

About AGI INFRA LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

AGI INFRA LIMITED (AGIIL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹3,787 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the AGIIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of AGI INFRA LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

AGIIL analysis, FAQs

Is AGI INFRA LIMITED (AGIIL) a good buy?

On the numbers, AGI INFRA LIMITED (AGIIL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing premium at 39.9× earnings, ROE of 25.0%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is AGIIL overvalued or undervalued?

AGIIL trades at 39.9× earnings, premium versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the AGIIL share price target for 2031?

AGIIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹333, with an 80% range of ₹72-₹1,533 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability AGIIL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of AGIIL reaching ₹605 (2×) within 5 years is 31%.

What is the bull case for AGIIL?

AGIIL's return on equity of 25.0% ranks in the 90th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. AGIIL's return on capital employed of 20.1% ranks in the 80th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in AGIIL?

AGIIL's P/E of 39.9x is lower than 34% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 8.2× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. High historical volatility (53%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on AGIIL