Case study

AIIL

AUTHUM INVEST & INFRA LTD

Worth a closer look1y model +36.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

AUTHUM INVEST & INFRA LTD (AIIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is AIIL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

AUTHUM INVEST & INFRA LTD (AIIL) trades at ₹550,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100.

On the numbers, AUTHUM INVEST & INFRA LTD (AIIL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing fairly valued at 24.2× earnings, ROE of 13.1%, a 73% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

AIIL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹46,686 Cr
Current price
₹550
P/E ratio
24.2×
P/B ratio
3.18×
Book value
₹173
Dividend yield
0.04%
ROCE
13.7%
ROE
13.1%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is AIIL overvalued? AIIL P/E vs its sector

AIIL's P/E of 24.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.04% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

AIIL P/E
24.2×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
AIIL div yield
0.04%
Peer median yield
1.65%

AIIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of AIIL history (44%/yr drift, 51%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
AIIL 2027₹387₹742₹1,417+36%
AIIL 2028₹399₹1,007₹2,536+85%
AIIL 2029₹439₹1,358₹4,323+150%
AIIL 2030₹497₹1,846₹6,853+240%
AIIL 2031₹585₹2,513₹11,013+362%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability AIIL goes up, or doubles?

73%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
91%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
77%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,088 within 5 years

The bull case for AIIL

  • A 24.2× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • A healthy 13.1% return on equity.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 73% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹742 (+36%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹4,323.

The bear case & risks

  • High historical volatility (51%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹439.

AIIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years AIIL compounded at 44%/year with annualized volatility of 51%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹387₹1,417, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

AIIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
36.4%
80% range₹387–₹1,417
P(price ↑)73%
P(price 2×)22%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
149.8%
80% range₹439–₹4,323
P(price ↑)86%
P(price 2×)60%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
362.1%
80% range₹585–₹11,013
P(price ↑)91%
P(price 2×)77%

AIIL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
AIIL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds AIIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the AIIL price target & forecast page.

AIIL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. AIIL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

AIIL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy AIIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST40.3%2.5×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST40.3%2.5×
DhanCHEAPEST40.3%2.5×

Compare every broker on the AIIL MTF page.

AIIL vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
AIIL (this stock)24.2×0.04%₹46,686 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About AUTHUM INVEST & INFRA LTD: sector, index & market-cap context

AUTHUM INVEST & INFRA LTD (AIIL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹46,686 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the AIIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of AUTHUM INVEST & INFRA LTD's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

AIIL analysis, FAQs

Is AUTHUM INVEST & INFRA LTD (AIIL) a good buy?

On the numbers, AUTHUM INVEST & INFRA LTD (AIIL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing fairly valued at 24.2× earnings, ROE of 13.1%, a 73% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is AIIL overvalued or undervalued?

AIIL trades at 24.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the AIIL share price target for 2031?

AIIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,513, with an 80% range of ₹585₹11,013 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability AIIL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of AIIL reaching ₹1,088 (2×) within 5 years is 77%.

What is the bull case for AIIL?

A 24.2× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A healthy 13.1% return on equity. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 73% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹742 (+36%).

What are the risks in AIIL?

High historical volatility (51%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on AIIL