Case study

AJANTPHARM

Ajanta Pharma

Worth a closer look1y model +9.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Ajanta Pharma (AJANTPHARM) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is AJANTPHARM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Ajanta Pharma (AJANTPHARM) trades at ₹3,190,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100.

On the numbers, Ajanta Pharma (AJANTPHARM) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100, weighing premium at 35.3× earnings, ROE of 27.1%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

AJANTPHARM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹39,884 Cr
Current price
₹3,190
P/E ratio
35.3×
P/B ratio
8.81×
Book value
₹362
Dividend yield
0.88%
ROCE
34.5%
ROE
27.1%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is AJANTPHARM overvalued? AJANTPHARM P/E vs its sector

AJANTPHARM's P/E of 35.3× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.88% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

AJANTPHARM P/E
35.3×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
AJANTPHARM div yield
0.88%
Peer median yield
1.65%

AJANTPHARM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of AJANTPHARM history (14%/yr drift, 32%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
AJANTPHARM 2027₹2,230₹3,348₹5,099+9%
AJANTPHARM 2028₹2,037₹3,695₹6,564+21%
AJANTPHARM 2029₹1,974₹4,029₹8,199+31%
AJANTPHARM 2030₹1,965₹4,348₹10,090+42%
AJANTPHARM 2031₹1,957₹4,762₹12,090+55%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability AJANTPHARM goes up, or doubles?

61%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
74%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
36%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹6,130 within 5 years

The bull case for AJANTPHARM

  • High return on equity (27.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (34.5%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹3,348 (+9%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹8,199.

The bear case & risks

  • At 35.3× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • A steep 8.8× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,974.

AJANTPHARM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years AJANTPHARM compounded at 14%/year with annualized volatility of 32%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹2,230₹5,099, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

AJANTPHARM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
9.2%
80% range₹2,230–₹5,099
P(price ↑)61%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
31.4%
80% range₹1,974–₹8,199
P(price ↑)69%
P(price 2×)22%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
55.3%
80% range₹1,957–₹12,090
P(price ↑)74%
P(price 2×)36%

AJANTPHARM price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
AJANTPHARM simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds AJANTPHARM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the AJANTPHARM price target & forecast page.

AJANTPHARM Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. AJANTPHARM scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

AJANTPHARM MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy AJANTPHARM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST29.0%3.5×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST29.0%3.5×
DhanCHEAPEST29.0%3.5×

Compare every broker on the AJANTPHARM MTF page.

AJANTPHARM vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
AJANTPHARM (this stock)35.3×0.88%₹39,884 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Ajanta Pharma: sector, index & market-cap context

Ajanta Pharma (AJANTPHARM) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹39,884 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the AJANTPHARM Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Ajanta Pharma's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

AJANTPHARM analysis, FAQs

Is Ajanta Pharma (AJANTPHARM) a good buy?

On the numbers, Ajanta Pharma (AJANTPHARM) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100, weighing premium at 35.3× earnings, ROE of 27.1%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is AJANTPHARM overvalued or undervalued?

AJANTPHARM trades at 35.3× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the AJANTPHARM share price target for 2031?

AJANTPHARM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹4,762, with an 80% range of ₹1,957₹12,090 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability AJANTPHARM doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of AJANTPHARM reaching ₹6,130 (2×) within 5 years is 36%.

What is the bull case for AJANTPHARM?

High return on equity (27.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (34.5%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹3,348 (+9%).

What are the risks in AJANTPHARM?

At 35.3× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. A steep 8.8× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on AJANTPHARM