Case study

ALICON

Alicon Castalloy Limited

Tread carefully1y model +2.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

39Score

Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is ALICON a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON) trades at ₹743,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 39/100.

On the numbers, Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 39/100, weighing premium at 31.1× earnings, ROE of 6.4%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

ALICON fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1,219 Cr
Current price
₹743
P/E ratio
31.1×
P/B ratio
1.93×
Book value
₹385
Dividend yield
0.27%
ROCE
10.0%
ROE
6.4%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How ALICON ranks against the 2,371 companies in our screener

Is ALICON overvalued? ALICON P/E vs peers

ALICON trades at 31.1× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

ALICON share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of ALICON history (9%/yr drift, 40%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
ALICON 2027₹455₹761₹1,273+2%
ALICON 2028₹378₹779₹1,607+5%
ALICON 2029₹328₹798₹1,942+7%
ALICON 2030₹294₹818₹2,278+10%
ALICON 2031₹268₹838₹2,617+13%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability ALICON goes up, or doubles?

52%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
55%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
26%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,486 within 5 years

The bull case for ALICON

  • Alicon Castalloy Limited is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,942.

The bear case & risks

  • ALICON's P/E of 31.1x is lower than 44% of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
  • ALICON's return on equity of 6.4% ranks in the 34th percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹328.

ALICON volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years ALICON compounded at 9%/year with annualized volatility of 40%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹455-₹1,273, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

ALICON price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
2.4%
80% range₹455-₹1,273
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
7.5%
80% range₹328-₹1,942
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)19%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
12.8%
80% range₹268-₹2,617
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)26%

ALICON price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
ALICON simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds ALICON hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the ALICON price target & forecast page.

ALICON Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. ALICON scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

ALICON MTF margin & leverage across 5 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ALICON with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 5 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Groww33.33%3.0×
Dhan50.00%2.0×
Kotak Neo100.00%1.0×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST33.29%3.0×
Share India33.32%3.0×

Compare every broker on the ALICON MTF page.

About Alicon Castalloy Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,219 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the ALICON Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Alicon Castalloy Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

ALICON analysis, FAQs

Is Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON) a good buy?

On the numbers, Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 39/100, weighing premium at 31.1× earnings, ROE of 6.4%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is ALICON overvalued or undervalued?

ALICON trades at 31.1× earnings, premium versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the ALICON share price target for 2031?

ALICON's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹838, with an 80% range of ₹268-₹2,617 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability ALICON doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of ALICON reaching ₹1,486 (2×) within 5 years is 26%.

What is the bull case for ALICON?

Alicon Castalloy Limited is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in ALICON?

ALICON's P/E of 31.1x is lower than 44% of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026. ALICON's return on equity of 6.4% ranks in the 34th percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.

More on ALICON