ALKEM
Alkem Laboratories
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Alkem Laboratories (ALKEM) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is ALKEM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Alkem Laboratories (ALKEM) trades at ₹5,367,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.
On the numbers, Alkem Laboratories (ALKEM) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing premium at 26.3× earnings, ROE of 18.9%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
ALKEM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is ALKEM overvalued? ALKEM P/E vs its sector
ALKEM's P/E of 26.3× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.84% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
ALKEM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of ALKEM history (4%/yr drift, 23%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALKEM 2027 | ₹3,996 | ₹5,412 | ₹7,266 | +1% |
| ALKEM 2028 | ₹3,570 | ₹5,459 | ₹8,287 | +2% |
| ALKEM 2029 | ₹3,287 | ₹5,503 | ₹9,240 | +2% |
| ALKEM 2030 | ₹3,065 | ₹5,526 | ₹10,147 | +3% |
| ALKEM 2031 | ₹2,886 | ₹5,545 | ₹10,869 | +3% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability ALKEM goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for ALKEM
- High return on equity (18.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (21.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Relatively low volatility (23%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹9,240.
The bear case & risks
- At 26.3× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹3,287.
ALKEM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years ALKEM compounded at 4%/year with annualized volatility of 23%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹3,996–₹7,266, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
ALKEM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
ALKEM price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds ALKEM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the ALKEM price target & forecast page.
ALKEM Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. ALKEM scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
ALKEM MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ALKEM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 26.8% | 3.7× |
| Zerodha | 22.8% | 4.4× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 22.0% | 4.5× |
Compare every broker on the ALKEM MTF page.
ALKEM vs peers,sector comparison
About Alkem Laboratories: sector, index & market-cap context
Alkem Laboratories (ALKEM) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹64,156 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the ALKEM Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Alkem Laboratories's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
ALKEM analysis, FAQs
Is Alkem Laboratories (ALKEM) a good buy?
On the numbers, Alkem Laboratories (ALKEM) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing premium at 26.3× earnings, ROE of 18.9%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is ALKEM overvalued or undervalued?
ALKEM trades at 26.3× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the ALKEM share price target for 2031?
ALKEM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹5,545, with an 80% range of ₹2,886–₹10,869 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability ALKEM doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of ALKEM reaching ₹10,747 (2×) within 5 years is 10%.
What is the bull case for ALKEM?
High return on equity (18.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (21.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital. Relatively low volatility (23%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
What are the risks in ALKEM?
At 26.3× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.