ALPHA
Kotak Nifty Alpha 50 ETF
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Kotak Nifty Alpha 50 ETF (ALPHA) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is ALPHA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.
On the numbers, Kotak Nifty Alpha 50 ETF (ALPHA) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing a 69% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
How ALPHA ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
ALPHA is not currently one of the 2,373 companies in our live screener universe, so no percentile comparison is available for it here.
ALPHA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 4.5y of ALPHA history (11%/yr drift, 21%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALPHA 2027 | ₹45 | ₹59 | ₹78 | +11% |
| ALPHA 2028 | ₹45 | ₹66 | ₹98 | +23% |
| ALPHA 2029 | ₹45 | ₹73 | ₹119 | +37% |
| ALPHA 2030 | ₹47 | ₹81 | ₹141 | +52% |
| ALPHA 2031 | ₹49 | ₹90 | ₹168 | +69% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability ALPHA goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for ALPHA
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 69% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹59 (+11%).
- Relatively low volatility (21%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹119.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹45.
ALPHA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 4.5 years ALPHA compounded at 11%/year with annualized volatility of 21%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹45-₹78, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
ALPHA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
ALPHA price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds ALPHA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the ALPHA price target & forecast page.
ALPHA MTF margin & leverage across 9 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ALPHA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 9 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Zerodha | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Groww | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Dhan | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Kotak Neo | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Paytm Money | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Fyers | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Anand RathiCHEAPEST | 17.94% | 5.6× |
| Share India | 20.00% | 5.0× |
Compare every broker on the ALPHA MTF page.
About Kotak Nifty Alpha 50 ETF: sector, index & market-cap context
Kotak Nifty Alpha 50 ETF (ALPHA) is an NSE-listed company. See more stocks on our screener.
How the ALPHA Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Kotak Nifty Alpha 50 ETF's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
ALPHA analysis, FAQs
Is Kotak Nifty Alpha 50 ETF (ALPHA) a good buy?
On the numbers, Kotak Nifty Alpha 50 ETF (ALPHA) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing a 69% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is ALPHA overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation ratios for ALPHA are tracked live on Downstox.
What is the ALPHA share price target for 2031?
ALPHA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹90, with an 80% range of ₹49-₹168 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability ALPHA doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of ALPHA reaching ₹107 (2×) within 5 years is 36%.
What is the bull case for ALPHA?
A 10,000-path probability model puts a 69% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹59 (+11%). Relatively low volatility (21%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
What are the risks in ALPHA?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.