Case study

APTUS

Aptus Value Housing Finance India Limited

Screens attractive1y model +4.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

72Score

Aptus Value Housing Finance India Limited (APTUS) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is APTUS a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Aptus Value Housing Finance India Limited (APTUS) trades at ₹261,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 72/100.

On the numbers, Aptus Value Housing Finance India Limited (APTUS) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 72/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.3× earnings, ROE of 20.1%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

APTUS fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹13,054 Cr
Current price
₹261
P/E ratio
13.3×
P/B ratio
2.58×
Book value
₹101
Dividend yield
1.73%
ROCE
15.4%
ROE
20.1%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How APTUS ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for APTUS, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is APTUS overvalued? APTUS P/E vs peers

APTUS trades at 13.3× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

APTUS share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 4.9y of APTUS history (-6%/yr drift, 32%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
APTUS 2027₹181₹272₹408+4%
APTUS 2028₹159₹283₹504+9%
APTUS 2029₹144₹295₹602+13%
APTUS 2030₹135₹307₹696+18%
APTUS 2031₹127₹320₹808+23%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability APTUS goes up, or doubles?

55%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
61%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
25%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹521 within 5 years

The bull case for APTUS

  • APTUS's P/E of 13.3x is lower than 79% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • APTUS's return on equity of 20.1% ranks in the 84th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹602.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹144.

APTUS volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 4.9 years APTUS compounded at -6%/year with annualized volatility of 32%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹181-₹408, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

APTUS price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 4.9 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
4.2%
80% range₹181-₹408
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
13.1%
80% range₹144-₹602
P(price ↑)59%
P(price 2×)15%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
22.7%
80% range₹127-₹808
P(price ↑)61%
P(price 2×)25%

APTUS price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
APTUS simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds APTUS hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the APTUS price target & forecast page.

APTUS Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. APTUS scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

APTUS MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy APTUS with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox30.90%3.2×
Zerodha30.87%3.2×
Groww31.00%3.2×
Dhan30.87%3.2×
Kotak Neo30.86%3.2×
Paytm Money31.00%3.2×
PocketfulCHEAPEST30.83%3.2×
Fyers31.25%3.2×
Anand Rathi30.87%3.2×
Bajaj Broking32.00%3.1×
Share India30.97%3.2×

Compare every broker on the APTUS MTF page.

About Aptus Value Housing Finance India Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Aptus Value Housing Finance India Limited (APTUS) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹13,054 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the APTUS Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Aptus Value Housing Finance India Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

APTUS analysis, FAQs

Is Aptus Value Housing Finance India Limited (APTUS) a good buy?

On the numbers, Aptus Value Housing Finance India Limited (APTUS) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 72/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.3× earnings, ROE of 20.1%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is APTUS overvalued or undervalued?

APTUS trades at 13.3× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the APTUS share price target for 2031?

APTUS's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹320, with an 80% range of ₹127-₹808 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability APTUS doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of APTUS reaching ₹521 (2×) within 5 years is 25%.

What is the bull case for APTUS?

APTUS's P/E of 13.3x is lower than 79% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. APTUS's return on equity of 20.1% ranks in the 84th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in APTUS?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on APTUS