Case study

ARFIN

Arfin India Limited

High-risk on the numbers1y model +1.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

28Score

Arfin India Limited (ARFIN) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is ARFIN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Arfin India Limited (ARFIN) trades at ₹88,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100.

On the numbers, Arfin India Limited (ARFIN) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing expensive at 96.1× earnings, ROE of 9.4%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

ARFIN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1,485 Cr
Current price
₹88
P/E ratio
96.1×
P/B ratio
8.71×
Book value
₹10
Dividend yield
0.12%
ROCE
14.8%
ROE
9.4%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How ARFIN ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is ARFIN overvalued? ARFIN P/E vs peers

ARFIN trades at 96.1× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

ARFIN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of ARFIN history (25%/yr drift, 46%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
ARFIN 2027₹50₹90₹160+2%
ARFIN 2028₹40₹91₹207+4%
ARFIN 2029₹33₹93₹258+6%
ARFIN 2030₹29₹95₹308+8%
ARFIN 2031₹26₹96₹361+10%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability ARFIN goes up, or doubles?

52%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
54%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
28%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹176 within 5 years

The bull case for ARFIN

  • Arfin India Limited is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹258.

The bear case & risks

  • ARFIN's P/E of 96.1x is lower than 11% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 8.7× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • ARFIN's return on equity of 9.4% ranks in the 46th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹33.

ARFIN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years ARFIN compounded at 25%/year with annualized volatility of 46%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹50-₹160, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

ARFIN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.9%
80% range₹50-₹160
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)7%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
5.7%
80% range₹33-₹258
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)21%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
9.7%
80% range₹26-₹361
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)28%

ARFIN price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
ARFIN simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds ARFIN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the ARFIN price target & forecast page.

ARFIN Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. ARFIN scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

ARFIN MTF margin & leverage across 5 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ARFIN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 5 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
GrowwCHEAPEST35.72%2.8×
Kotak Neo100.00%1.0×
Paytm Money100.00%1.0×
Anand Rathi100.00%1.0×
Share IndiaCHEAPEST35.72%2.8×

Compare every broker on the ARFIN MTF page.

About Arfin India Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Arfin India Limited (ARFIN) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,485 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the ARFIN Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Arfin India Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

ARFIN analysis, FAQs

Is Arfin India Limited (ARFIN) a good buy?

On the numbers, Arfin India Limited (ARFIN) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing expensive at 96.1× earnings, ROE of 9.4%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is ARFIN overvalued or undervalued?

ARFIN trades at 96.1× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the ARFIN share price target for 2031?

ARFIN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹96, with an 80% range of ₹26-₹361 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability ARFIN doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of ARFIN reaching ₹176 (2×) within 5 years is 28%.

What is the bull case for ARFIN?

Arfin India Limited is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in ARFIN?

ARFIN's P/E of 96.1x is lower than 11% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 8.7× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. ARFIN's return on equity of 9.4% ranks in the 46th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on ARFIN