Case study

ATGL

Adani Total Gas Limited

Tread carefully1y model +1.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

41Score

Adani Total Gas Limited (ATGL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is ATGL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Adani Total Gas Limited (ATGL) trades at ₹658,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100.

On the numbers, Adani Total Gas Limited (ATGL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 114.0× earnings, ROE of 14.4%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

ATGL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹72,318 Cr
Current price
₹658
P/E ratio
114.0×
P/B ratio
14.89×
Book value
₹44
Dividend yield
0.04%
ROCE
15.3%
ROE
14.4%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How ATGL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is ATGL overvalued? ATGL P/E vs peers

ATGL trades at 114.0× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

ATGL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 7.6y of ATGL history (28%/yr drift, 45%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
ATGL 2027₹374₹666₹1,185+1%
ATGL 2028₹297₹674₹1,530+2%
ATGL 2029₹251₹682₹1,851+4%
ATGL 2030₹217₹690₹2,195+5%
ATGL 2031₹188₹699₹2,597+6%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability ATGL goes up, or doubles?

51%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
52%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
27%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,315 within 5 years

The bull case for ATGL

  • ATGL's return on equity of 14.4% ranks in the 69th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,851.

The bear case & risks

  • ATGL's P/E of 114.0x is lower than 9% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 14.9× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹251.

ATGL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 7.6 years ATGL compounded at 28%/year with annualized volatility of 45%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹374-₹1,185, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

ATGL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 7.6 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.2%
80% range₹374-₹1,185
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)6%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
3.7%
80% range₹251-₹1,851
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)20%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
6.3%
80% range₹188-₹2,597
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)27%

ATGL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
ATGL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds ATGL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the ATGL price target & forecast page.

ATGL Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. ATGL scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

ATGL MTF margin & leverage across 9 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ATGL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 9 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox36.58%2.7×
Zerodha36.53%2.7×
Groww36.74%2.7×
Dhan36.53%2.7×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST36.50%2.7×
Paytm Money36.95%2.7×
Pocketful37.19%2.7×
Anand Rathi36.53%2.7×
Share India36.73%2.7×

Compare every broker on the ATGL MTF page.

About Adani Total Gas Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Adani Total Gas Limited (ATGL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹72,318 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the ATGL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Adani Total Gas Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

ATGL analysis, FAQs

Is Adani Total Gas Limited (ATGL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Adani Total Gas Limited (ATGL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 114.0× earnings, ROE of 14.4%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is ATGL overvalued or undervalued?

ATGL trades at 114.0× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the ATGL share price target for 2031?

ATGL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹699, with an 80% range of ₹188-₹2,597 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability ATGL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of ATGL reaching ₹1,315 (2×) within 5 years is 27%.

What is the bull case for ATGL?

ATGL's return on equity of 14.4% ranks in the 69th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in ATGL?

ATGL's P/E of 114.0x is lower than 9% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 14.9× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on ATGL