Case study

AVADHSUGAR

Avadh Sugar & Energy

Tread carefully1y model +1.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

41Score

Avadh Sugar & Energy (AVADHSUGAR) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is AVADHSUGAR a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Avadh Sugar & Energy (AVADHSUGAR) trades at ₹601,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100.

On the numbers, Avadh Sugar & Energy (AVADHSUGAR) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.9× earnings, ROE of 5.6%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

AVADHSUGAR fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1,203 Cr
Current price
₹601
P/E ratio
17.9×
P/B ratio
1.07×
Book value
₹562
Dividend yield
1.66%
ROCE
6.8%
ROE
5.6%
Piotroski F-Score
3/8

How AVADHSUGAR ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is AVADHSUGAR overvalued? AVADHSUGAR P/E vs peers

AVADHSUGAR trades at 17.9× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

AVADHSUGAR share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 8.8y of AVADHSUGAR history (10%/yr drift, 42%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
AVADHSUGAR 2027₹357₹613₹1,050+2%
AVADHSUGAR 2028₹289₹624₹1,347+4%
AVADHSUGAR 2029₹251₹637₹1,613+6%
AVADHSUGAR 2030₹221₹649₹1,907+8%
AVADHSUGAR 2031₹198₹661₹2,214+10%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability AVADHSUGAR goes up, or doubles?

52%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
54%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
26%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,202 within 5 years

The bull case for AVADHSUGAR

  • AVADHSUGAR's P/E of 17.9x is lower than 67% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Low price-to-book of 1.07×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,613.

The bear case & risks

  • AVADHSUGAR's return on equity of 5.6% ranks in the 32nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • AVADHSUGAR's Piotroski F-Score of 3/8 ranks in the 15th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹251.

AVADHSUGAR volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 8.8 years AVADHSUGAR compounded at 10%/year with annualized volatility of 42%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹357-₹1,050, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

AVADHSUGAR price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 8.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.9%
80% range₹357-₹1,050
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)6%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
5.9%
80% range₹251-₹1,613
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)19%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
10.0%
80% range₹198-₹2,214
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)26%

AVADHSUGAR price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
AVADHSUGAR simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds AVADHSUGAR hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the AVADHSUGAR price target & forecast page.

AVADHSUGAR Piotroski F-Score: 3/8, how financially strong is it?

3/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. AVADHSUGAR scores 3/8, weak on the financial-strength checks.

AVADHSUGAR MTF margin & leverage across 3 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy AVADHSUGAR with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 3 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Zerodha50.00%2.0×
Groww34.70%2.9×
Share IndiaCHEAPEST34.12%2.9×

Compare every broker on the AVADHSUGAR MTF page.

About Avadh Sugar & Energy: sector, index & market-cap context

Avadh Sugar & Energy (AVADHSUGAR) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,203 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the AVADHSUGAR Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Avadh Sugar & Energy's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

AVADHSUGAR analysis, FAQs

Is Avadh Sugar & Energy (AVADHSUGAR) a good buy?

On the numbers, Avadh Sugar & Energy (AVADHSUGAR) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.9× earnings, ROE of 5.6%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is AVADHSUGAR overvalued or undervalued?

AVADHSUGAR trades at 17.9× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the AVADHSUGAR share price target for 2031?

AVADHSUGAR's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹661, with an 80% range of ₹198-₹2,214 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability AVADHSUGAR doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of AVADHSUGAR reaching ₹1,202 (2×) within 5 years is 26%.

What is the bull case for AVADHSUGAR?

AVADHSUGAR's P/E of 17.9x is lower than 67% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. Low price-to-book of 1.07×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in AVADHSUGAR?

AVADHSUGAR's return on equity of 5.6% ranks in the 32nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. AVADHSUGAR's Piotroski F-Score of 3/8 ranks in the 15th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

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