Case study

AVL

ADITYA VISION LIMITED

Mixed signals1y model +8.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

48Score

ADITYA VISION LIMITED (AVL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is AVL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

ADITYA VISION LIMITED (AVL) trades at ₹618,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 48/100.

On the numbers, ADITYA VISION LIMITED (AVL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 48/100, weighing expensive at 57.0× earnings, ROE of 18.6%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

AVL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹7,987 Cr
Current price
₹618
P/E ratio
57.0×
P/B ratio
11.59×
Book value
₹53
Dividend yield
0.18%
ROCE
17.0%
ROE
18.6%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How AVL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is AVL overvalued? AVL P/E vs peers

AVL trades at 57.0× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

AVL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.5y of AVL history (63%/yr drift, 41%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
AVL 2027₹397₹669₹1,127+8%
AVL 2028₹345₹724₹1,520+17%
AVL 2029₹320₹784₹1,920+27%
AVL 2030₹295₹848₹2,439+37%
AVL 2031₹286₹918₹2,948+48%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability AVL goes up, or doubles?

58%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
67%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
37%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,237 within 5 years

The bull case for AVL

  • AVL's return on equity of 18.6% ranks in the 81st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,920.

The bear case & risks

  • AVL's P/E of 57.0x is lower than 23% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 11.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹320.

AVL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.5 years AVL compounded at 63%/year with annualized volatility of 41%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹397-₹1,127, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

AVL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.5 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
8.2%
80% range₹397-₹1,127
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)6%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
26.7%
80% range₹320-₹1,920
P(price ↑)63%
P(price 2×)26%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
48.4%
80% range₹286-₹2,948
P(price ↑)67%
P(price 2×)37%

AVL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
AVL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds AVL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the AVL price target & forecast page.

AVL Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. AVL scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

AVL MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy AVL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.00%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST32.17%3.1×
Groww32.27%3.1×
DhanCHEAPEST32.17%3.1×
Kotak Neo40.00%2.5×
Paytm Money32.40%3.1×
Pocketful32.61%3.1×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST32.17%3.1×
Bajaj Broking50.00%2.0×
Share India32.27%3.1×

Compare every broker on the AVL MTF page.

About ADITYA VISION LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

ADITYA VISION LIMITED (AVL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹7,987 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the AVL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of ADITYA VISION LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

AVL analysis, FAQs

Is ADITYA VISION LIMITED (AVL) a good buy?

On the numbers, ADITYA VISION LIMITED (AVL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 48/100, weighing expensive at 57.0× earnings, ROE of 18.6%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is AVL overvalued or undervalued?

AVL trades at 57.0× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the AVL share price target for 2031?

AVL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹918, with an 80% range of ₹286-₹2,948 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability AVL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of AVL reaching ₹1,237 (2×) within 5 years is 37%.

What is the bull case for AVL?

AVL's return on equity of 18.6% ranks in the 81st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in AVL?

AVL's P/E of 57.0x is lower than 23% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 11.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on AVL