Case study

AWL

AWL AGRI BUSINESS LIMITED

Mixed signals1y model +2.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

53Score

AWL AGRI BUSINESS LIMITED (AWL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is AWL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

AWL AGRI BUSINESS LIMITED (AWL) trades at ₹198,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100.

On the numbers, AWL AGRI BUSINESS LIMITED (AWL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing fairly valued at 21.9× earnings, ROE of 10.7%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

AWL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹25,669 Cr
Current price
₹198
P/E ratio
21.9×
P/B ratio
2.47×
Book value
₹80
Dividend yield
0.51%
ROCE
18.3%
ROE
10.7%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How AWL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is AWL overvalued? AWL P/E vs peers

AWL trades at 21.9× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

AWL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 4.4y of AWL history (-7%/yr drift, 36%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
AWL 2027₹129₹203₹318+3%
AWL 2028₹110₹208₹394+5%
AWL 2029₹97₹213₹469+8%
AWL 2030₹87₹218₹548+11%
AWL 2031₹80₹224₹626+13%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability AWL goes up, or doubles?

53%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
56%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
24%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹395 within 5 years

The bull case for AWL

  • AWL's P/E of 21.9x is lower than 59% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • AWL's return on capital employed of 18.3% ranks in the 76th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹469.

The bear case & risks

  • AWL's return on equity of 10.7% ranks in the 53rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹97.

AWL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 4.4 years AWL compounded at -7%/year with annualized volatility of 36%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹129-₹318, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

AWL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 4.4 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
2.5%
80% range₹129-₹318
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
7.8%
80% range₹97-₹469
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)16%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
13.3%
80% range₹80-₹626
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)24%

AWL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
AWL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds AWL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the AWL price target & forecast page.

AWL Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. AWL scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

AWL MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy AWL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox30.48%3.3×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST30.45%3.3×
Groww30.57%3.3×
Dhan30.45%3.3×
Kotak Neo30.49%3.3×
Paytm Money30.68%3.3×
Pocketful30.83%3.2×
Fyers31.25%3.2×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST30.45%3.3×
Bajaj Broking40.00%2.5×
Share India30.53%3.3×

Compare every broker on the AWL MTF page.

About AWL AGRI BUSINESS LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

AWL AGRI BUSINESS LIMITED (AWL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹25,669 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the AWL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of AWL AGRI BUSINESS LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

AWL analysis, FAQs

Is AWL AGRI BUSINESS LIMITED (AWL) a good buy?

On the numbers, AWL AGRI BUSINESS LIMITED (AWL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing fairly valued at 21.9× earnings, ROE of 10.7%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is AWL overvalued or undervalued?

AWL trades at 21.9× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the AWL share price target for 2031?

AWL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹224, with an 80% range of ₹80-₹626 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability AWL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of AWL reaching ₹395 (2×) within 5 years is 24%.

What is the bull case for AWL?

AWL's P/E of 21.9x is lower than 59% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. AWL's return on capital employed of 18.3% ranks in the 76th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in AWL?

AWL's return on equity of 10.7% ranks in the 53rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on AWL