Case study

BASF

Basf India Limited

Tread carefully1y model +5.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

39Score

Basf India Limited (BASF) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is BASF a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Basf India Limited (BASF) trades at ₹4,091,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 39/100.

On the numbers, Basf India Limited (BASF) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 39/100, weighing premium at 28.7× earnings, ROE of 10.9%, a 56% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

BASF fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹17,708 Cr
Current price
₹4,091
P/E ratio
28.7×
P/B ratio
4.48×
Book value
₹914
Dividend yield
0.61%
ROCE
14.5%
ROE
10.9%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How BASF ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is BASF overvalued? BASF P/E vs peers

BASF trades at 28.7× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

BASF share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of BASF history (13%/yr drift, 38%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
BASF 2027₹2,663₹4,322₹7,015+6%
BASF 2028₹2,282₹4,566₹9,137+12%
BASF 2029₹2,054₹4,824₹11,325+18%
BASF 2030₹1,911₹5,096₹13,588+25%
BASF 2031₹1,786₹5,384₹16,231+32%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability BASF goes up, or doubles?

56%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
62%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
32%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹8,182 within 5 years

The bull case for BASF

  • Basf India Limited is part of the nifty200 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹11,325.

The bear case & risks

  • BASF's P/E of 28.7x is lower than 48% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • BASF's return on equity of 10.9% ranks in the 54th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹2,054.

BASF volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years BASF compounded at 13%/year with annualized volatility of 38%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹2,663-₹7,015, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

BASF price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
5.6%
80% range₹2,663-₹7,015
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
17.9%
80% range₹2,054-₹11,325
P(price ↑)60%
P(price 2×)21%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
31.6%
80% range₹1,786-₹16,231
P(price ↑)62%
P(price 2×)32%

BASF price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
BASF simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds BASF hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the BASF price target & forecast page.

BASF Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. BASF scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

BASF MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy BASF with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.00%2.9×
Zerodha31.16%3.2×
Groww31.19%3.2×
Dhan31.16%3.2×
Kotak Neo31.15%3.2×
Paytm Money31.19%3.2×
Pocketful31.06%3.2×
Anand Rathi31.16%3.2×
Bajaj Broking35.00%2.9×
Share IndiaCHEAPEST30.97%3.2×

Compare every broker on the BASF MTF page.

About Basf India Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Basf India Limited (BASF) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹17,708 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the BASF Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Basf India Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

BASF analysis, FAQs

Is Basf India Limited (BASF) a good buy?

On the numbers, Basf India Limited (BASF) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 39/100, weighing premium at 28.7× earnings, ROE of 10.9%, a 56% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is BASF overvalued or undervalued?

BASF trades at 28.7× earnings, premium versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the BASF share price target for 2031?

BASF's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹5,384, with an 80% range of ₹1,786-₹16,231 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability BASF doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of BASF reaching ₹8,182 (2×) within 5 years is 32%.

What is the bull case for BASF?

Basf India Limited is part of the nifty200 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in BASF?

BASF's P/E of 28.7x is lower than 48% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. BASF's return on equity of 10.9% ranks in the 54th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on BASF