BDL
Bharat Dynamics
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Bharat Dynamics (BDL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is BDL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100.
On the numbers, Bharat Dynamics (BDL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing a 36% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
BDL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of BDL history (-5%/yr drift, 43%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDL 2027 | ₹698 | ₹1,207 | ₹2,098 | -14% |
| BDL 2028 | ₹480 | ₹1,038 | ₹2,297 | -26% |
| BDL 2029 | ₹350 | ₹905 | ₹2,336 | -36% |
| BDL 2030 | ₹262 | ₹782 | ₹2,353 | -44% |
| BDL 2031 | ₹201 | ₹677 | ₹2,299 | -52% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability BDL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for BDL
- Bharat Dynamics is part of the NSE universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,336.
The bear case & risks
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 36% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹350.
BDL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years BDL compounded at -5%/year with annualized volatility of 43%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹698–₹2,098, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
BDL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
BDL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds BDL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the BDL price target & forecast page.
BDL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy BDL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.0% | 2.9× |
| Zerodha | 29.8% | 3.4× |
| Groww | 29.9% | 3.3× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 27.9% | 3.6× |
Compare every broker on the BDL MTF page.
BDL vs peers,sector comparison
About Bharat Dynamics: sector, index & market-cap context
Bharat Dynamics (BDL) is an NSE-listed company.
How the BDL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Bharat Dynamics's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
BDL analysis, FAQs
Is Bharat Dynamics (BDL) a good buy?
On the numbers, Bharat Dynamics (BDL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing a 36% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is BDL overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation ratios for BDL are tracked live on Downstox.
What is the BDL share price target for 2031?
BDL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹677, with an 80% range of ₹201–₹2,299 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability BDL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of BDL reaching ₹2,813 (2×) within 5 years is 7%.
What is the bull case for BDL?
Bharat Dynamics is part of the NSE universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
What are the risks in BDL?
The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 36% chance of finishing above today's price.