Case study

BDL

BHARAT DYNAMICS LIMITED

Tread carefully1y model +3.8%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

33Score

BHARAT DYNAMICS LIMITED (BDL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is BDL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

BHARAT DYNAMICS LIMITED (BDL) trades at ₹1,294,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100.

On the numbers, BHARAT DYNAMICS LIMITED (BDL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 113.0× earnings, ROE of 10.2%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

BDL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹47,433 Cr
Current price
₹1,294
P/E ratio
113.0×
P/B ratio
11.16×
Book value
₹116
Dividend yield
0.35%
ROCE
13.8%
ROE
10.2%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How BDL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for BDL, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is BDL overvalued? BDL P/E vs peers

BDL trades at 113.0× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

BDL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 8.2y of BDL history (23%/yr drift, 43%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
BDL 2027₹783₹1,343₹2,305+4%
BDL 2028₹634₹1,394₹3,065+8%
BDL 2029₹556₹1,448₹3,769+12%
BDL 2030₹496₹1,503₹4,555+16%
BDL 2031₹462₹1,560₹5,267+21%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability BDL goes up, or doubles?

53%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
58%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
29%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,588 within 5 years

The bull case for BDL

  • BHARAT DYNAMICS LIMITED is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹3,769.

The bear case & risks

  • BDL's P/E of 113.0x is lower than 9% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 11.2× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • BDL's return on equity of 10.2% ranks in the 51st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹556.

BDL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 8.2 years BDL compounded at 23%/year with annualized volatility of 43%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹783-₹2,305, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

BDL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 8.2 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
3.8%
80% range₹783-₹2,305
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)6%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
11.9%
80% range₹556-₹3,769
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)22%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
20.5%
80% range₹462-₹5,267
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)29%

BDL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
BDL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds BDL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the BDL price target & forecast page.

BDL Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. BDL scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

BDL MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy BDL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox30.59%3.3×
Zerodha29.00%3.4×
Groww40.00%2.5×
DhanCHEAPEST27.04%3.7×
Kotak Neo30.03%3.3×
Paytm Money27.16%3.7×
Pocketful34.51%2.9×
Fyers34.48%2.9×
Anand Rathi34.04%2.9×
Bajaj Broking29.00%3.4×
Share India34.05%2.9×

Compare every broker on the BDL MTF page.

About BHARAT DYNAMICS LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

BHARAT DYNAMICS LIMITED (BDL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹47,433 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the BDL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of BHARAT DYNAMICS LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

BDL analysis, FAQs

Is BHARAT DYNAMICS LIMITED (BDL) a good buy?

On the numbers, BHARAT DYNAMICS LIMITED (BDL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 113.0× earnings, ROE of 10.2%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is BDL overvalued or undervalued?

BDL trades at 113.0× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the BDL share price target for 2031?

BDL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,560, with an 80% range of ₹462-₹5,267 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability BDL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of BDL reaching ₹2,588 (2×) within 5 years is 29%.

What is the bull case for BDL?

BHARAT DYNAMICS LIMITED is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in BDL?

BDL's P/E of 113.0x is lower than 9% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 11.2× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. BDL's return on equity of 10.2% ranks in the 51st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on BDL