Case study

BHARATFORG

Bharat Forge Limited

Tread carefully1y model +7.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

41Score

Bharat Forge Limited (BHARATFORG) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is BHARATFORG a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Bharat Forge Limited (BHARATFORG) trades at ₹2,265,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100.

On the numbers, Bharat Forge Limited (BHARATFORG) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 96.0× earnings, ROE of 12.0%, a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

BHARATFORG fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.08L Cr
Current price
₹2,265
P/E ratio
96.0×
P/B ratio
11.33×
Book value
₹200
Dividend yield
0.38%
ROCE
12.6%
ROE
12.0%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How BHARATFORG ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is BHARATFORG overvalued? BHARATFORG P/E vs peers

BHARATFORG trades at 96.0× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

BHARATFORG share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of BHARATFORG history (17%/yr drift, 30%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
BHARATFORG 2027₹1,680₹2,443₹3,552+8%
BHARATFORG 2028₹1,533₹2,635₹4,531+16%
BHARATFORG 2029₹1,458₹2,842₹5,543+25%
BHARATFORG 2030₹1,429₹3,066₹6,575+35%
BHARATFORG 2031₹1,401₹3,307₹7,805+46%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability BHARATFORG goes up, or doubles?

60%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
71%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
32%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹4,530 within 5 years

The bull case for BHARATFORG

  • BHARATFORG's return on equity of 12.0% ranks in the 59th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹5,543.

The bear case & risks

  • BHARATFORG's P/E of 96.0x is lower than 11% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 11.3× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,458.

BHARATFORG volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years BHARATFORG compounded at 17%/year with annualized volatility of 30%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,680-₹3,552, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

BHARATFORG price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
7.9%
80% range₹1,680-₹3,552
P(price ↑)60%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
25.5%
80% range₹1,458-₹5,543
P(price ↑)67%
P(price 2×)19%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
46.0%
80% range₹1,401-₹7,805
P(price ↑)71%
P(price 2×)32%

BHARATFORG price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
BHARATFORG simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds BHARATFORG hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the BHARATFORG price target & forecast page.

BHARATFORG Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. BHARATFORG scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

BHARATFORG MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy BHARATFORG with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox26.14%3.8×
Zerodha25.30%4.0×
Groww25.33%3.9×
Dhan24.00%4.2×
Kotak Neo25.00%4.0×
Paytm MoneyCHEAPEST22.87%4.4×
Pocketful29.91%3.3×
Fyers30.30%3.3×
Anand Rathi29.66%3.4×
Bajaj Broking24.00%4.2×
Share India29.73%3.4×

Compare every broker on the BHARATFORG MTF page.

About Bharat Forge Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Bharat Forge Limited (BHARATFORG) is a large-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.08L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the BHARATFORG Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Bharat Forge Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

BHARATFORG analysis, FAQs

Is Bharat Forge Limited (BHARATFORG) a good buy?

On the numbers, Bharat Forge Limited (BHARATFORG) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 96.0× earnings, ROE of 12.0%, a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is BHARATFORG overvalued or undervalued?

BHARATFORG trades at 96.0× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the BHARATFORG share price target for 2031?

BHARATFORG's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹3,307, with an 80% range of ₹1,401-₹7,805 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability BHARATFORG doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of BHARATFORG reaching ₹4,530 (2×) within 5 years is 32%.

What is the bull case for BHARATFORG?

BHARATFORG's return on equity of 12.0% ranks in the 59th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in BHARATFORG?

BHARATFORG's P/E of 96.0x is lower than 11% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 11.3× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on BHARATFORG