Case study

BHARATFORG

Bharat Forge

Tread carefully1y model +2.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Bharat Forge (BHARATFORG) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is BHARATFORG a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Bharat Forge (BHARATFORG) trades at ₹2,104,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100.

On the numbers, Bharat Forge (BHARATFORG) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 85.2× earnings, ROE of 12.5%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

BHARATFORG fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.01L Cr
Current price
₹2,104
P/E ratio
85.2×
P/B ratio
10.52×
Book value
₹200
Dividend yield
0.40%
ROCE
13.1%
ROE
12.5%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is BHARATFORG overvalued? BHARATFORG P/E vs its sector

BHARATFORG's P/E of 85.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.40% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

BHARATFORG P/E
85.2×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
BHARATFORG div yield
0.40%
Peer median yield
1.65%

BHARATFORG share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of BHARATFORG history (8%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
BHARATFORG 2027₹1,427₹2,101₹3,122+3%
BHARATFORG 2028₹1,255₹2,169₹3,757+6%
BHARATFORG 2029₹1,154₹2,226₹4,390+9%
BHARATFORG 2030₹1,069₹2,315₹5,043+13%
BHARATFORG 2031₹1,004₹2,409₹5,770+18%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability BHARATFORG goes up, or doubles?

54%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
59%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
22%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹4,083 within 5 years

The bull case for BHARATFORG

  • A healthy 12.5% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹4,390.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 85.2× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • A steep 10.5× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,154.

BHARATFORG volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years BHARATFORG compounded at 8%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,427₹3,122, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

BHARATFORG price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
2.9%
80% range₹1,427–₹3,122
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
9.1%
80% range₹1,154–₹4,390
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)13%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
18.0%
80% range₹1,004–₹5,770
P(price ↑)59%
P(price 2×)22%

BHARATFORG price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
BHARATFORG simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds BHARATFORG hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the BHARATFORG price target & forecast page.

BHARATFORG Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. BHARATFORG scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

BHARATFORG MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy BHARATFORG with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox30.2%3.3×
Zerodha25.8%3.9×
DhanCHEAPEST24.0%4.2×

Compare every broker on the BHARATFORG MTF page.

BHARATFORG vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
BHARATFORG (this stock)85.2×0.40%₹1.01L Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Bharat Forge: sector, index & market-cap context

Bharat Forge (BHARATFORG) is a large-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.01L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.

How the BHARATFORG Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Bharat Forge's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

BHARATFORG analysis, FAQs

Is Bharat Forge (BHARATFORG) a good buy?

On the numbers, Bharat Forge (BHARATFORG) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 85.2× earnings, ROE of 12.5%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is BHARATFORG overvalued or undervalued?

BHARATFORG trades at 85.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the BHARATFORG share price target for 2031?

BHARATFORG's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,409, with an 80% range of ₹1,004₹5,770 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability BHARATFORG doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of BHARATFORG reaching ₹4,083 (2×) within 5 years is 22%.

What is the bull case for BHARATFORG?

A healthy 12.5% return on equity.

What are the risks in BHARATFORG?

A rich 85.2× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 10.5× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on BHARATFORG