Case study

BLUEDART

Blue Dart Express

Tread carefully1y model -23.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Blue Dart Express (BLUEDART) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is BLUEDART a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Blue Dart Express (BLUEDART) trades at ₹4,993,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 35/100.

On the numbers, Blue Dart Express (BLUEDART) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 35/100, weighing expensive at 42.2× earnings, ROE of 16.8%, a 20% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

BLUEDART fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹11,845 Cr
Current price
₹4,993
P/E ratio
42.2×
P/B ratio
6.67×
Book value
₹749
Dividend yield
0.50%
ROCE
16.6%
ROE
16.8%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is BLUEDART overvalued? BLUEDART P/E vs its sector

BLUEDART's P/E of 42.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.50% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

BLUEDART P/E
42.2×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
BLUEDART div yield
0.50%
Peer median yield
1.65%

BLUEDART share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of BLUEDART history (-22%/yr drift, 32%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
BLUEDART 2027₹2,489₹3,782₹5,745-24%
BLUEDART 2028₹1,581₹2,863₹5,181-42%
BLUEDART 2029₹1,052₹2,174₹4,462-56%
BLUEDART 2030₹719₹1,651₹3,808-67%
BLUEDART 2031₹493₹1,257₹3,171-75%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability BLUEDART goes up, or doubles?

20%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
3%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
0%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹9,938 within 5 years

The bull case for BLUEDART

  • A healthy 16.8% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹4,462.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 42.2× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 20% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,052.

BLUEDART volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years BLUEDART compounded at -22%/year with annualized volatility of 32%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹2,489₹5,745, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

BLUEDART price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
23.9%
80% range₹2,489–₹5,745
P(price ↑)20%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
56.2%
80% range₹1,052–₹4,462
P(price ↑)7%
P(price 2×)0%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
74.7%
80% range₹493–₹3,171
P(price ↑)3%
P(price 2×)0%

BLUEDART price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
BLUEDART simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds BLUEDART hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the BLUEDART price target & forecast page.

BLUEDART Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. BLUEDART scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

BLUEDART MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy BLUEDART with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST29.5%3.4×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST29.5%3.4×
DhanCHEAPEST29.5%3.4×

Compare every broker on the BLUEDART MTF page.

Which ace investors hold BLUEDART?

Held by 1 tracked superstar investor (from public NSE/BSE disclosures):

BLUEDART vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
BLUEDART (this stock)42.2×0.50%₹11,845 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Blue Dart Express: sector, index & market-cap context

Blue Dart Express (BLUEDART) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹11,845 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the BLUEDART Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Blue Dart Express's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

BLUEDART analysis, FAQs

Is Blue Dart Express (BLUEDART) a good buy?

On the numbers, Blue Dart Express (BLUEDART) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 35/100, weighing expensive at 42.2× earnings, ROE of 16.8%, a 20% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is BLUEDART overvalued or undervalued?

BLUEDART trades at 42.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the BLUEDART share price target for 2031?

BLUEDART's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,257, with an 80% range of ₹493₹3,171 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability BLUEDART doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of BLUEDART reaching ₹9,938 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.

What is the bull case for BLUEDART?

A healthy 16.8% return on equity.

What are the risks in BLUEDART?

A rich 42.2× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 20% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on BLUEDART