Case study

BSE500IETF

ICICI Prudential BSE 500 ETF

Worth a closer look1y model +10.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

61Score

ICICI Prudential BSE 500 ETF (BSE500IETF) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is BSE500IETF a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.

On the numbers, ICICI Prudential BSE 500 ETF (BSE500IETF) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing a 75% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

How BSE500IETF ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

BSE500IETF is not currently one of the 2,373 companies in our live screener universe, so no percentile comparison is available for it here.

BSE500IETF share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.6y of BSE500IETF history (9%/yr drift, 14%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
BSE500IETF 2027₹37₹44₹53+10%
BSE500IETF 2028₹38₹49₹63+22%
BSE500IETF 2029₹39₹54₹74+34%
BSE500IETF 2030₹41₹59₹86+48%
BSE500IETF 2031₹43₹65₹98+63%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability BSE500IETF goes up, or doubles?

75%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
93%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
26%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹80 within 5 years

The bull case for BSE500IETF

  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 75% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹44 (+10%).
  • Relatively low volatility (14%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹74.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹39.

BSE500IETF volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.6 years BSE500IETF compounded at 9%/year with annualized volatility of 14%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹37-₹53, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

BSE500IETF price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.6 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
10.3%
80% range₹37-₹53
P(price ↑)75%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
34.0%
80% range₹39-₹74
P(price ↑)88%
P(price 2×)5%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
63.0%
80% range₹43-₹98
P(price ↑)93%
P(price 2×)26%

BSE500IETF price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
BSE500IETF simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds BSE500IETF hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the BSE500IETF price target & forecast page.

BSE500IETF MTF margin & leverage across 7 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy BSE500IETF with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 7 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox20.00%5.0×
Groww20.00%5.0×
Dhan20.00%5.0×
Kotak Neo20.00%5.0×
Paytm Money20.00%5.0×
Fyers20.00%5.0×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST16.00%6.3×

Compare every broker on the BSE500IETF MTF page.

About ICICI Prudential BSE 500 ETF: sector, index & market-cap context

ICICI Prudential BSE 500 ETF (BSE500IETF) is an NSE-listed company. See more stocks on our screener.

How the BSE500IETF Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of ICICI Prudential BSE 500 ETF's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

BSE500IETF analysis, FAQs

Is ICICI Prudential BSE 500 ETF (BSE500IETF) a good buy?

On the numbers, ICICI Prudential BSE 500 ETF (BSE500IETF) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing a 75% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is BSE500IETF overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation ratios for BSE500IETF are tracked live on Downstox.

What is the BSE500IETF share price target for 2031?

BSE500IETF's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹65, with an 80% range of ₹43-₹98 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability BSE500IETF doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of BSE500IETF reaching ₹80 (2×) within 5 years is 26%.

What is the bull case for BSE500IETF?

A 10,000-path probability model puts a 75% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹44 (+10%). Relatively low volatility (14%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.

What are the risks in BSE500IETF?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on BSE500IETF