Case study

CARRARO

CARRARO INDIA LIMITED

Worth a closer look1y model -21.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

CARRARO INDIA LIMITED (CARRARO) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is CARRARO a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

CARRARO INDIA LIMITED (CARRARO) trades at ₹581,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100.

On the numbers, CARRARO INDIA LIMITED (CARRARO) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 24.0× earnings, ROE of 26.9%, a 33% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

CARRARO fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹3,304 Cr
Current price
₹581
P/E ratio
24.0×
P/B ratio
5.85×
Book value
₹99
Dividend yield
0.78%
ROCE
29.5%
ROE
26.9%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is CARRARO overvalued? CARRARO P/E vs its sector

CARRARO's P/E of 24.0× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.78% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

CARRARO P/E
24.0×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
CARRARO div yield
0.78%
Peer median yield
1.65%

CARRARO share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.4y of CARRARO history (-9%/yr drift, 55%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
CARRARO 2027₹219₹440₹900-21%
CARRARO 2028₹127₹347₹954-38%
CARRARO 2029₹81₹273₹934-51%
CARRARO 2030₹50₹212₹881-62%
CARRARO 2031₹34₹169₹839-70%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability CARRARO goes up, or doubles?

33%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
17%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
7%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,121 within 5 years

The bull case for CARRARO

  • A 24.0× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • High return on equity (26.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (29.5%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹934.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 33% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • High historical volatility (55%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹81.

CARRARO volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 1.4 years CARRARO compounded at -9%/year with annualized volatility of 55%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹219₹900, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

CARRARO price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 1.4 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
21.5%
80% range₹219–₹900
P(price ↑)33%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
51.3%
80% range₹81–₹934
P(price ↑)23%
P(price 2×)7%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
69.8%
80% range₹34–₹839
P(price ↑)17%
P(price 2×)7%

CARRARO price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
CARRARO simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds CARRARO hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the CARRARO price target & forecast page.

CARRARO Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. CARRARO scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

CARRARO MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CARRARO with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST36.7%2.7×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST36.7%2.7×
DhanCHEAPEST36.7%2.7×

Compare every broker on the CARRARO MTF page.

CARRARO vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
CARRARO (this stock)24.0×0.78%₹3,304 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About CARRARO INDIA LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

CARRARO INDIA LIMITED (CARRARO) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹3,304 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the CARRARO Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of CARRARO INDIA LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

CARRARO analysis, FAQs

Is CARRARO INDIA LIMITED (CARRARO) a good buy?

On the numbers, CARRARO INDIA LIMITED (CARRARO) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 24.0× earnings, ROE of 26.9%, a 33% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is CARRARO overvalued or undervalued?

CARRARO trades at 24.0× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the CARRARO share price target for 2031?

CARRARO's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹169, with an 80% range of ₹34₹839 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability CARRARO doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of CARRARO reaching ₹1,121 (2×) within 5 years is 7%.

What is the bull case for CARRARO?

A 24.0× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. High return on equity (26.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (29.5%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in CARRARO?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 33% chance of finishing above today's price. High historical volatility (55%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on CARRARO