Case study

CARTRADE

CARTRADE

High-risk on the numbers1y model +52.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

CARTRADE (CARTRADE) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is CARTRADE a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

CARTRADE (CARTRADE) trades at ₹2,571,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100.

On the numbers, CARTRADE (CARTRADE) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing expensive at 54.1× earnings, ROE of 9.7%, a 78% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

CARTRADE fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹12,345 Cr
Current price
₹2,571
P/E ratio
54.1×
P/B ratio
4.95×
Book value
₹519
ROCE
11.8%
ROE
9.7%
Piotroski F-Score
3/9

Is CARTRADE overvalued? CARTRADE P/E vs its sector

CARTRADE's P/E of 54.1× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.

CARTRADE P/E
54.1×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
Peer median yield
1.66%

CARTRADE share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of CARTRADE history (57%/yr drift, 54%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
CARTRADE 2027₹1,946₹3,911₹7,790+53%
CARTRADE 2028₹2,215₹5,967₹15,924+133%
CARTRADE 2029₹2,741₹8,978₹30,100+251%
CARTRADE 2030₹3,441₹13,975₹57,082+446%
CARTRADE 2031₹4,358₹21,092₹1,00,328+724%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability CARTRADE goes up, or doubles?

78%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
96%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
88%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹5,117 within 5 years

The bull case for CARTRADE

  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 78% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹3,911 (+53%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹30,100.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 54.1× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • Return on equity is a soft 9.7%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
  • High historical volatility (54%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹2,741.

CARTRADE volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years CARTRADE compounded at 57%/year with annualized volatility of 54%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,946₹7,790, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

CARTRADE price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
52.9%
80% range₹1,946–₹7,790
P(price ↑)78%
P(price 2×)31%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
250.9%
80% range₹2,741–₹30,100
P(price ↑)91%
P(price 2×)73%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
724.4%
80% range₹4,358–₹1,00,328
P(price ↑)96%
P(price 2×)88%

CARTRADE price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
CARTRADE simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds CARTRADE hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the CARTRADE price target & forecast page.

CARTRADE Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?

3/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. CARTRADE scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.

CARTRADE MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CARTRADE with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
ZerodhaCHEAPEST40.8%2.4×
Dhan64.0%1.6×

Compare every broker on the CARTRADE MTF page.

CARTRADE vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
CARTRADE (this stock)54.1×₹12,345 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About CARTRADE: sector, index & market-cap context

CARTRADE (CARTRADE) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹12,345 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the CARTRADE Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of CARTRADE's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

CARTRADE analysis, FAQs

Is CARTRADE (CARTRADE) a good buy?

On the numbers, CARTRADE (CARTRADE) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing expensive at 54.1× earnings, ROE of 9.7%, a 78% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is CARTRADE overvalued or undervalued?

CARTRADE trades at 54.1× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the CARTRADE share price target for 2031?

CARTRADE's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹21,092, with an 80% range of ₹4,358₹1,00,328 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability CARTRADE doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of CARTRADE reaching ₹5,117 (2×) within 5 years is 88%.

What is the bull case for CARTRADE?

A 10,000-path probability model puts a 78% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹3,911 (+53%).

What are the risks in CARTRADE?

A rich 54.1× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 9.7%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.

More on CARTRADE