CDSL
CDSL
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
CDSL (CDSL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is CDSL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
CDSL (CDSL) trades at ₹1,372,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100.
On the numbers, CDSL (CDSL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing expensive at 62.9× earnings, ROE of 24.5%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
CDSL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is CDSL overvalued? CDSL P/E vs its sector
CDSL's P/E of 62.9× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.91% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
CDSL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of CDSL history (15%/yr drift, 40%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDSL 2027 | ₹880 | ₹1,482 | ₹2,457 | +8% |
| CDSL 2028 | ₹769 | ₹1,595 | ₹3,258 | +16% |
| CDSL 2029 | ₹702 | ₹1,686 | ₹4,202 | +23% |
| CDSL 2030 | ₹667 | ₹1,827 | ₹5,160 | +33% |
| CDSL 2031 | ₹633 | ₹1,959 | ₹6,283 | +43% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability CDSL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for CDSL
- High return on equity (24.5%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (32.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹4,202.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 62.9× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- A steep 14.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹702.
CDSL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years CDSL compounded at 15%/year with annualized volatility of 40%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹880–₹2,457, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
CDSL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
CDSL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds CDSL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the CDSL price target & forecast page.
CDSL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. CDSL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
CDSL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CDSL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 32.2% | 3.1× |
| Zerodha | 27.4% | 3.6× |
| Groww | 27.5% | 3.6× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 25.2% | 4.0× |
Compare every broker on the CDSL MTF page.
CDSL vs peers,sector comparison
About CDSL: sector, index & market-cap context
CDSL (CDSL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹28,671 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the CDSL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of CDSL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
CDSL analysis, FAQs
Is CDSL (CDSL) a good buy?
On the numbers, CDSL (CDSL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing expensive at 62.9× earnings, ROE of 24.5%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is CDSL overvalued or undervalued?
CDSL trades at 62.9× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the CDSL share price target for 2031?
CDSL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,959, with an 80% range of ₹633–₹6,283 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability CDSL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of CDSL reaching ₹2,741 (2×) within 5 years is 35%.
What is the bull case for CDSL?
High return on equity (24.5%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (32.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in CDSL?
A rich 62.9× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 14.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.