CERA
Cera Sanitaryware
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Cera Sanitaryware (CERA) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is CERA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Cera Sanitaryware (CERA) trades at ₹6,662,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100.
On the numbers, Cera Sanitaryware (CERA) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing premium at 34.8× earnings, ROE of 18.2%, a 24% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
CERA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is CERA overvalued? CERA P/E vs its sector
CERA's P/E of 34.8× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.13% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
CERA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of CERA history (-18%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CERA 2027 | ₹3,447 | ₹5,157 | ₹7,677 | -20% |
| CERA 2028 | ₹2,308 | ₹4,090 | ₹7,209 | -37% |
| CERA 2029 | ₹1,613 | ₹3,249 | ₹6,525 | -50% |
| CERA 2030 | ₹1,142 | ₹2,593 | ₹5,802 | -60% |
| CERA 2031 | ₹819 | ₹2,067 | ₹5,119 | -68% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability CERA goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for CERA
- High return on equity (18.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (22.4%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹6,525.
The bear case & risks
- At 34.8× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 24% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,613.
CERA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years CERA compounded at -18%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹3,447–₹7,677, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
CERA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
CERA price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds CERA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the CERA price target & forecast page.
CERA Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. CERA scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
CERA MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CERA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.0% | 2.9× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 30.2% | 3.3× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 30.2% | 3.3× |
Compare every broker on the CERA MTF page.
CERA vs peers,sector comparison
About Cera Sanitaryware: sector, index & market-cap context
Cera Sanitaryware (CERA) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹8,591 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the CERA Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Cera Sanitaryware's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
CERA analysis, FAQs
Is Cera Sanitaryware (CERA) a good buy?
On the numbers, Cera Sanitaryware (CERA) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing premium at 34.8× earnings, ROE of 18.2%, a 24% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is CERA overvalued or undervalued?
CERA trades at 34.8× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the CERA share price target for 2031?
CERA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,067, with an 80% range of ₹819–₹5,119 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability CERA doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of CERA reaching ₹12,896 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.
What is the bull case for CERA?
High return on equity (18.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (22.4%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in CERA?
At 34.8× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 24% chance of finishing above today's price.