Case study

CGCL

Capri Global Capital

Mixed signals1y model -6.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Capri Global Capital (CGCL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is CGCL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Capri Global Capital (CGCL) trades at ₹216,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100.

On the numbers, Capri Global Capital (CGCL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing fairly valued at 21.9× earnings, ROE of 16.5%, a 43% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

CGCL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹20,779 Cr
Current price
₹216
P/E ratio
21.9×
P/B ratio
2.88×
Book value
₹75
Dividend yield
0.09%
ROCE
11.7%
ROE
16.5%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is CGCL overvalued? CGCL P/E vs its sector

CGCL's P/E of 21.9× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.09% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

CGCL P/E
21.9×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
CGCL div yield
0.09%
Peer median yield
1.65%

CGCL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of CGCL history (1%/yr drift, 41%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
CGCL 2027₹122₹206₹343-7%
CGCL 2028₹92₹190₹397-14%
CGCL 2029₹72₹177₹431-20%
CGCL 2030₹59₹166₹467-25%
CGCL 2031₹48₹154₹485-30%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability CGCL goes up, or doubles?

43%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
35%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
12%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹442 within 5 years

The bull case for CGCL

  • A 21.9× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • A healthy 16.5% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹431.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 43% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹72.

CGCL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years CGCL compounded at 1%/year with annualized volatility of 41%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹122₹343, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

CGCL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
6.6%
80% range₹122–₹343
P(price ↑)43%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
19.8%
80% range₹72–₹431
P(price ↑)38%
P(price 2×)9%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
30.3%
80% range₹48–₹485
P(price ↑)35%
P(price 2×)12%

CGCL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
CGCL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds CGCL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the CGCL price target & forecast page.

CGCL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. CGCL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

CGCL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CGCL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST33.4%3.0×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST33.4%3.0×
DhanCHEAPEST33.4%3.0×

Compare every broker on the CGCL MTF page.

CGCL vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
CGCL (this stock)21.9×0.09%₹20,779 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Capri Global Capital: sector, index & market-cap context

Capri Global Capital (CGCL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹20,779 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the CGCL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Capri Global Capital's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

CGCL analysis, FAQs

Is Capri Global Capital (CGCL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Capri Global Capital (CGCL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing fairly valued at 21.9× earnings, ROE of 16.5%, a 43% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is CGCL overvalued or undervalued?

CGCL trades at 21.9× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the CGCL share price target for 2031?

CGCL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹154, with an 80% range of ₹48₹485 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability CGCL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of CGCL reaching ₹442 (2×) within 5 years is 12%.

What is the bull case for CGCL?

A 21.9× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A healthy 16.5% return on equity.

What are the risks in CGCL?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 43% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on CGCL