Case study

CHALET

Chalet Hotels

Mixed signals1y model -7.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Chalet Hotels (CHALET) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is CHALET a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Chalet Hotels (CHALET) trades at ₹824,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 48/100.

On the numbers, Chalet Hotels (CHALET) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 48/100, weighing premium at 28.0× earnings, ROE of 19.2%, a 40% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

CHALET fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹18,083 Cr
Current price
₹824
P/E ratio
28.0×
P/B ratio
4.88×
Book value
₹169
Dividend yield
0.12%
ROCE
17.1%
ROE
19.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is CHALET overvalued? CHALET P/E vs its sector

CHALET's P/E of 28.0× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.12% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

CHALET P/E
28.0×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
CHALET div yield
0.12%
Peer median yield
1.65%

CHALET share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of CHALET history (-2%/yr drift, 32%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
CHALET 2027₹495₹741₹1,120-8%
CHALET 2028₹387₹690₹1,243-14%
CHALET 2029₹309₹639₹1,309-20%
CHALET 2030₹255₹591₹1,341-26%
CHALET 2031₹216₹550₹1,384-31%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability CHALET goes up, or doubles?

40%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
30%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
7%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,605 within 5 years

The bull case for CHALET

  • High return on equity (19.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,309.

The bear case & risks

  • At 28.0× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 40% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹309.

CHALET volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years CHALET compounded at -2%/year with annualized volatility of 32%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹495₹1,120, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

CHALET price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
7.7%
80% range₹495–₹1,120
P(price ↑)40%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
20.4%
80% range₹309–₹1,309
P(price ↑)34%
P(price 2×)5%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
31.5%
80% range₹216–₹1,384
P(price ↑)30%
P(price 2×)7%

CHALET price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
CHALET simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds CHALET hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the CHALET price target & forecast page.

CHALET Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. CHALET scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

CHALET MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CHALET with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST29.9%3.3×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST29.9%3.3×
DhanCHEAPEST29.9%3.3×

Compare every broker on the CHALET MTF page.

CHALET vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
CHALET (this stock)28.0×0.12%₹18,083 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Chalet Hotels: sector, index & market-cap context

Chalet Hotels (CHALET) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹18,083 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the CHALET Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Chalet Hotels's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

CHALET analysis, FAQs

Is Chalet Hotels (CHALET) a good buy?

On the numbers, Chalet Hotels (CHALET) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 48/100, weighing premium at 28.0× earnings, ROE of 19.2%, a 40% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is CHALET overvalued or undervalued?

CHALET trades at 28.0× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the CHALET share price target for 2031?

CHALET's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹550, with an 80% range of ₹216₹1,384 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability CHALET doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of CHALET reaching ₹1,605 (2×) within 5 years is 7%.

What is the bull case for CHALET?

High return on equity (19.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.

What are the risks in CHALET?

At 28.0× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 40% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on CHALET