Case study

CHAMBLFERT

Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited

Screens attractive1y model +5.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

80Score

Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited (CHAMBLFERT) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is CHAMBLFERT a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited (CHAMBLFERT) trades at ₹451,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100.

On the numbers, Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited (CHAMBLFERT) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100, weighing inexpensive at 9.4× earnings, ROE of 20.0%, a 56% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

CHAMBLFERT fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹18,057 Cr
Current price
₹451
P/E ratio
9.4×
P/B ratio
1.73×
Book value
₹260
Dividend yield
2.44%
ROCE
25.2%
ROE
20.0%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How CHAMBLFERT ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is CHAMBLFERT overvalued? CHAMBLFERT P/E vs peers

CHAMBLFERT trades at 9.4× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

CHAMBLFERT share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of CHAMBLFERT history (20%/yr drift, 33%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
CHAMBLFERT 2027₹308₹474₹729+5%
CHAMBLFERT 2028₹275₹499₹904+11%
CHAMBLFERT 2029₹256₹525₹1,077+16%
CHAMBLFERT 2030₹243₹552₹1,252+22%
CHAMBLFERT 2031₹228₹580₹1,481+29%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability CHAMBLFERT goes up, or doubles?

56%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
64%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
27%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹901 within 5 years

The bull case for CHAMBLFERT

  • CHAMBLFERT's P/E of 9.4x is lower than 88% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • CHAMBLFERT's return on equity of 20.0% ranks in the 84th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • CHAMBLFERT's return on capital employed of 25.2% ranks in the 88th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • CHAMBLFERT's dividend yield of 2.4% ranks in the 90th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,077.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹256.

CHAMBLFERT volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years CHAMBLFERT compounded at 20%/year with annualized volatility of 33%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹308-₹729, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

CHAMBLFERT price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
5.2%
80% range₹308-₹729
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
16.4%
80% range₹256-₹1,077
P(price ↑)61%
P(price 2×)17%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
28.8%
80% range₹228-₹1,481
P(price ↑)64%
P(price 2×)27%

CHAMBLFERT price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
CHAMBLFERT simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds CHAMBLFERT hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the CHAMBLFERT price target & forecast page.

CHAMBLFERT Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. CHAMBLFERT scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

CHAMBLFERT MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CHAMBLFERT with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST30.26%3.3×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST30.26%3.3×
Groww30.35%3.3×
Dhan30.26%3.3×
Kotak Neo30.30%3.3×
Paytm Money30.35%3.3×
Pocketful30.47%3.3×
Fyers31.25%3.2×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST30.26%3.3×
Bajaj Broking33.00%3.0×
Share India30.35%3.3×

Compare every broker on the CHAMBLFERT MTF page.

About Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited (CHAMBLFERT) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹18,057 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the CHAMBLFERT Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

CHAMBLFERT analysis, FAQs

Is Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited (CHAMBLFERT) a good buy?

On the numbers, Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited (CHAMBLFERT) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100, weighing inexpensive at 9.4× earnings, ROE of 20.0%, a 56% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is CHAMBLFERT overvalued or undervalued?

CHAMBLFERT trades at 9.4× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the CHAMBLFERT share price target for 2031?

CHAMBLFERT's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹580, with an 80% range of ₹228-₹1,481 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability CHAMBLFERT doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of CHAMBLFERT reaching ₹901 (2×) within 5 years is 27%.

What is the bull case for CHAMBLFERT?

CHAMBLFERT's P/E of 9.4x is lower than 88% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. CHAMBLFERT's return on equity of 20.0% ranks in the 84th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. CHAMBLFERT's return on capital employed of 25.2% ranks in the 88th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in CHAMBLFERT?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on CHAMBLFERT