CHAMBLFERT
Chambal Fertilizers
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Chambal Fertilizers (CHAMBLFERT) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is CHAMBLFERT a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Chambal Fertilizers (CHAMBLFERT) trades at ₹487,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 74/100.
On the numbers, Chambal Fertilizers (CHAMBLFERT) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 74/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.0× earnings, ROE of 20.4%, a 39% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
CHAMBLFERT fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is CHAMBLFERT overvalued? CHAMBLFERT P/E vs its sector
CHAMBLFERT's P/E of 10.0× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 2.05% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.
CHAMBLFERT share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of CHAMBLFERT history (-4%/yr drift, 34%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHAMBLFERT 2027 | ₹285 | ₹440 | ₹679 | -9% |
| CHAMBLFERT 2028 | ₹218 | ₹403 | ₹745 | -17% |
| CHAMBLFERT 2029 | ₹174 | ₹367 | ₹781 | -24% |
| CHAMBLFERT 2030 | ₹141 | ₹331 | ₹790 | -32% |
| CHAMBLFERT 2031 | ₹115 | ₹302 | ₹791 | -38% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability CHAMBLFERT goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for CHAMBLFERT
- Trades at just 10.0× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- High return on equity (20.4%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (25.5%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Pays a 2.0% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹781.
The bear case & risks
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 39% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹174.
CHAMBLFERT volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years CHAMBLFERT compounded at -4%/year with annualized volatility of 34%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹285–₹679, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
CHAMBLFERT price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
CHAMBLFERT price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds CHAMBLFERT hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the CHAMBLFERT price target & forecast page.
CHAMBLFERT Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. CHAMBLFERT scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
CHAMBLFERT MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CHAMBLFERT with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 30.8% | 3.2× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 30.8% | 3.2× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 30.8% | 3.2× |
Compare every broker on the CHAMBLFERT MTF page.
CHAMBLFERT vs peers,sector comparison
About Chambal Fertilizers: sector, index & market-cap context
Chambal Fertilizers (CHAMBLFERT) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹19,518 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the CHAMBLFERT Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Chambal Fertilizers's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
CHAMBLFERT analysis, FAQs
Is Chambal Fertilizers (CHAMBLFERT) a good buy?
On the numbers, Chambal Fertilizers (CHAMBLFERT) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 74/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.0× earnings, ROE of 20.4%, a 39% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is CHAMBLFERT overvalued or undervalued?
CHAMBLFERT trades at 10.0× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.
What is the CHAMBLFERT share price target for 2031?
CHAMBLFERT's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹302, with an 80% range of ₹115–₹791 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability CHAMBLFERT doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of CHAMBLFERT reaching ₹968 (2×) within 5 years is 6%.
What is the bull case for CHAMBLFERT?
Trades at just 10.0× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. High return on equity (20.4%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (25.5%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in CHAMBLFERT?
The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 39% chance of finishing above today's price.