CHENNPETRO
Chennai Petroleum Corp
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Chennai Petroleum Corp (CHENNPETRO) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is CHENNPETRO a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Chennai Petroleum Corp (CHENNPETRO) trades at ₹1,116,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 71/100.
On the numbers, Chennai Petroleum Corp (CHENNPETRO) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 71/100, weighing inexpensive at 5.4× earnings, ROE of 32.1%, a 46% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
CHENNPETRO fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is CHENNPETRO overvalued? CHENNPETRO P/E vs its sector
CHENNPETRO's P/E of 5.4× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 0.72% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
CHENNPETRO share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of CHENNPETRO history (6%/yr drift, 48%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHENNPETRO 2027 | ₹571 | ₹1,042 | ₹1,956 | -5% |
| CHENNPETRO 2028 | ₹421 | ₹998 | ₹2,373 | -9% |
| CHENNPETRO 2029 | ₹323 | ₹958 | ₹2,792 | -13% |
| CHENNPETRO 2030 | ₹258 | ₹906 | ₹3,100 | -17% |
| CHENNPETRO 2031 | ₹216 | ₹841 | ₹3,440 | -23% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability CHENNPETRO goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for CHENNPETRO
- Trades at just 5.4× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- High return on equity (32.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (35.1%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,792.
The bear case & risks
- High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹323.
CHENNPETRO volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years CHENNPETRO compounded at 6%/year with annualized volatility of 48%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹571–₹1,956, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
CHENNPETRO price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
CHENNPETRO price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds CHENNPETRO hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the CHENNPETRO price target & forecast page.
CHENNPETRO Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. CHENNPETRO scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
CHENNPETRO MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CHENNPETRO with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 37.8% | 2.6× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 37.8% | 2.6× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 37.8% | 2.6× |
Compare every broker on the CHENNPETRO MTF page.
CHENNPETRO vs peers,sector comparison
About Chennai Petroleum Corp: sector, index & market-cap context
Chennai Petroleum Corp (CHENNPETRO) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹16,618 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the CHENNPETRO Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Chennai Petroleum Corp's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
CHENNPETRO analysis, FAQs
Is Chennai Petroleum Corp (CHENNPETRO) a good buy?
On the numbers, Chennai Petroleum Corp (CHENNPETRO) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 71/100, weighing inexpensive at 5.4× earnings, ROE of 32.1%, a 46% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is CHENNPETRO overvalued or undervalued?
CHENNPETRO trades at 5.4× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.
What is the CHENNPETRO share price target for 2031?
CHENNPETRO's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹841, with an 80% range of ₹216–₹3,440 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability CHENNPETRO doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of CHENNPETRO reaching ₹2,196 (2×) within 5 years is 19%.
What is the bull case for CHENNPETRO?
Trades at just 5.4× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. High return on equity (32.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (35.1%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in CHENNPETRO?
High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.