Case study

CHENNPETRO

Chennai Petroleum Corp

Screens attractive1y model -5.1%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Chennai Petroleum Corp (CHENNPETRO) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is CHENNPETRO a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Chennai Petroleum Corp (CHENNPETRO) trades at ₹1,116,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 71/100.

On the numbers, Chennai Petroleum Corp (CHENNPETRO) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 71/100, weighing inexpensive at 5.4× earnings, ROE of 32.1%, a 46% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

CHENNPETRO fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹16,618 Cr
Current price
₹1,116
P/E ratio
5.4×
P/B ratio
1.50×
Book value
₹746
Dividend yield
0.72%
ROCE
35.1%
ROE
32.1%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is CHENNPETRO overvalued? CHENNPETRO P/E vs its sector

CHENNPETRO's P/E of 5.4× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 0.72% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

CHENNPETRO P/E
5.4×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
CHENNPETRO div yield
0.72%
Peer median yield
1.65%

CHENNPETRO share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of CHENNPETRO history (6%/yr drift, 48%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
CHENNPETRO 2027₹571₹1,042₹1,956-5%
CHENNPETRO 2028₹421₹998₹2,373-9%
CHENNPETRO 2029₹323₹958₹2,792-13%
CHENNPETRO 2030₹258₹906₹3,100-17%
CHENNPETRO 2031₹216₹841₹3,440-23%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability CHENNPETRO goes up, or doubles?

46%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
41%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
19%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,196 within 5 years

The bull case for CHENNPETRO

  • Trades at just 5.4× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • High return on equity (32.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (35.1%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,792.

The bear case & risks

  • High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹323.

CHENNPETRO volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years CHENNPETRO compounded at 6%/year with annualized volatility of 48%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹571₹1,956, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

CHENNPETRO price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
5.1%
80% range₹571–₹1,956
P(price ↑)46%
P(price 2×)7%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
12.7%
80% range₹323–₹2,792
P(price ↑)44%
P(price 2×)16%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
23.4%
80% range₹216–₹3,440
P(price ↑)41%
P(price 2×)19%

CHENNPETRO price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
CHENNPETRO simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds CHENNPETRO hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the CHENNPETRO price target & forecast page.

CHENNPETRO Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. CHENNPETRO scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

CHENNPETRO MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CHENNPETRO with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST37.8%2.6×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST37.8%2.6×
DhanCHEAPEST37.8%2.6×

Compare every broker on the CHENNPETRO MTF page.

CHENNPETRO vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
CHENNPETRO (this stock)5.4×0.72%₹16,618 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Chennai Petroleum Corp: sector, index & market-cap context

Chennai Petroleum Corp (CHENNPETRO) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹16,618 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the CHENNPETRO Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Chennai Petroleum Corp's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

CHENNPETRO analysis, FAQs

Is Chennai Petroleum Corp (CHENNPETRO) a good buy?

On the numbers, Chennai Petroleum Corp (CHENNPETRO) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 71/100, weighing inexpensive at 5.4× earnings, ROE of 32.1%, a 46% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is CHENNPETRO overvalued or undervalued?

CHENNPETRO trades at 5.4× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the CHENNPETRO share price target for 2031?

CHENNPETRO's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹841, with an 80% range of ₹216₹3,440 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability CHENNPETRO doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of CHENNPETRO reaching ₹2,196 (2×) within 5 years is 19%.

What is the bull case for CHENNPETRO?

Trades at just 5.4× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. High return on equity (32.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (35.1%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in CHENNPETRO?

High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on CHENNPETRO