Case study

CHOLAHLDNG

Cholamandalam Financial Holdings

Worth a closer look1y model +1.8%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Cholamandalam Financial Holdings (CHOLAHLDNG) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is CHOLAHLDNG a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Cholamandalam Financial Holdings (CHOLAHLDNG) trades at ₹1,589,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100.

On the numbers, Cholamandalam Financial Holdings (CHOLAHLDNG) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing inexpensive at 12.2× earnings, ROE of 17.5%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

CHOLAHLDNG fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹29,736 Cr
Current price
₹1,589
P/E ratio
12.2×
P/B ratio
1.93×
Book value
₹823
Dividend yield
0.08%
ROCE
9.8%
ROE
17.5%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is CHOLAHLDNG overvalued? CHOLAHLDNG P/E vs its sector

CHOLAHLDNG's P/E of 12.2× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 0.08% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

CHOLAHLDNG P/E
12.2×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
CHOLAHLDNG div yield
0.08%
Peer median yield
1.65%

CHOLAHLDNG share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of CHOLAHLDNG history (11%/yr drift, 41%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
CHOLAHLDNG 2027₹966₹1,613₹2,719+2%
CHOLAHLDNG 2028₹790₹1,654₹3,432+4%
CHOLAHLDNG 2029₹683₹1,669₹4,099+5%
CHOLAHLDNG 2030₹603₹1,700₹4,895+7%
CHOLAHLDNG 2031₹558₹1,750₹5,669+11%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability CHOLAHLDNG goes up, or doubles?

52%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
55%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
26%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹3,168 within 5 years

The bull case for CHOLAHLDNG

  • Trades at just 12.2× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • A healthy 17.5% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹4,099.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹683.

CHOLAHLDNG volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years CHOLAHLDNG compounded at 11%/year with annualized volatility of 41%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹966₹2,719, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

CHOLAHLDNG price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.8%
80% range₹966–₹2,719
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
5.4%
80% range₹683–₹4,099
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)18%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
10.5%
80% range₹558–₹5,669
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)26%

CHOLAHLDNG price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
CHOLAHLDNG simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds CHOLAHLDNG hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the CHOLAHLDNG price target & forecast page.

CHOLAHLDNG Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. CHOLAHLDNG scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

CHOLAHLDNG MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CHOLAHLDNG with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST33.7%3.0×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST33.7%3.0×
DhanCHEAPEST33.7%3.0×

Compare every broker on the CHOLAHLDNG MTF page.

CHOLAHLDNG vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
CHOLAHLDNG (this stock)12.2×0.08%₹29,736 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Cholamandalam Financial Holdings: sector, index & market-cap context

Cholamandalam Financial Holdings (CHOLAHLDNG) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹29,736 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the CHOLAHLDNG Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Cholamandalam Financial Holdings's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

CHOLAHLDNG analysis, FAQs

Is Cholamandalam Financial Holdings (CHOLAHLDNG) a good buy?

On the numbers, Cholamandalam Financial Holdings (CHOLAHLDNG) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing inexpensive at 12.2× earnings, ROE of 17.5%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is CHOLAHLDNG overvalued or undervalued?

CHOLAHLDNG trades at 12.2× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the CHOLAHLDNG share price target for 2031?

CHOLAHLDNG's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,750, with an 80% range of ₹558₹5,669 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability CHOLAHLDNG doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of CHOLAHLDNG reaching ₹3,168 (2×) within 5 years is 26%.

What is the bull case for CHOLAHLDNG?

Trades at just 12.2× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. A healthy 17.5% return on equity.

What are the risks in CHOLAHLDNG?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on CHOLAHLDNG