COALINDIA
Coal India Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Coal India Limited (COALINDIA) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is COALINDIA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Coal India Limited (COALINDIA) trades at ₹415,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 83/100.
On the numbers, Coal India Limited (COALINDIA) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 83/100, weighing inexpensive at 8.2× earnings, ROE of 28.5%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
The Downstox take on COALINDIA
The real debate here is not whether Coal India is cheap. A single-digit P/E sitting next to 35% ROCE and a near 6% yield tells you the market is pricing terminal decline, not weak operations. So the question becomes: is this a high-return cash machine you are paid handsomely to own, or a value trap where the energy transition slowly erodes the moat? Watch the dividend's durability against falling reinvestment, and note the soft Piotroski score, which hints the recent year was not all forward momentum.
Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts on 23 Jun 2026. The figures quoted were accurate then; see the live ratios above for today's numbers. Information, not investment advice.
COALINDIA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How COALINDIA ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- COALINDIA's market cap of 2.56L Cr ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- COALINDIA's book value of ₹193 ranks in the 71st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- COALINDIA's promoter holding of 61.1% ranks in the 54th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- COALINDIA's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of -1.0% ranks in the 28th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- COALINDIA's 3-year revenue growth of 7.0% ranks in the 41st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- COALINDIA's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.12x is lower than 73% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is COALINDIA overvalued? COALINDIA P/E vs peers
COALINDIA trades at 8.2× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
COALINDIA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of COALINDIA history (2%/yr drift, 23%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COALINDIA 2027 | ₹314 | ₹423 | ₹569 | +2% |
| COALINDIA 2028 | ₹283 | ₹431 | ₹655 | +4% |
| COALINDIA 2029 | ₹263 | ₹439 | ₹732 | +6% |
| COALINDIA 2030 | ₹245 | ₹447 | ₹813 | +8% |
| COALINDIA 2031 | ₹234 | ₹455 | ₹884 | +10% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability COALINDIA goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for COALINDIA
- COALINDIA's P/E of 8.2x is lower than 90% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- COALINDIA's return on equity of 28.5% ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- COALINDIA's return on capital employed of 35.3% ranks in the top 5% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- COALINDIA's dividend yield of 5.1% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Relatively low volatility (23%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹732.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹263.
COALINDIA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years COALINDIA compounded at 2%/year with annualized volatility of 23%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹314-₹569, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
COALINDIA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
COALINDIA price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds COALINDIA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the COALINDIA price target & forecast page.
COALINDIA Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. COALINDIA scores 5/8, mixed financial health.
COALINDIA MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy COALINDIA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 23.46% | 4.3× |
| Zerodha | 23.00% | 4.3× |
| Groww | 23.03% | 4.3× |
| Dhan | 22.00% | 4.5× |
| Kotak NeoCHEAPEST | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Paytm Money | 20.09% | 5.0× |
| Pocketful | 27.09% | 3.7× |
| Fyers | 27.03% | 3.7× |
| Anand Rathi | 26.93% | 3.7× |
| Bajaj Broking | 23.00% | 4.3× |
| Share India | 27.03% | 3.7× |
Compare every broker on the COALINDIA MTF page.
About Coal India Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Coal India Limited (COALINDIA) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Mining sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹2.56L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the COALINDIA Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Coal India Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
COALINDIA analysis, FAQs
Is Coal India Limited (COALINDIA) a good buy?
On the numbers, Coal India Limited (COALINDIA) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 83/100, weighing inexpensive at 8.2× earnings, ROE of 28.5%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is COALINDIA overvalued or undervalued?
COALINDIA trades at 8.2× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the COALINDIA share price target for 2031?
COALINDIA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹455, with an 80% range of ₹234-₹884 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability COALINDIA doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of COALINDIA reaching ₹831 (2×) within 5 years is 12%.
What is the bull case for COALINDIA?
COALINDIA's P/E of 8.2x is lower than 90% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. COALINDIA's return on equity of 28.5% ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. COALINDIA's return on capital employed of 35.3% ranks in the top 5% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in COALINDIA?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.