Case study

CPSEETF

CPSE ETF

Mixed signals1y model +1.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

CPSE ETF (CPSEETF) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is CPSEETF a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100.

On the numbers, CPSE ETF (CPSEETF) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

CPSEETF share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of CPSEETF history (3%/yr drift, 18%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
CPSEETF 2027₹80₹101₹128+2%
CPSEETF 2028₹74₹103₹144+3%
CPSEETF 2029₹70₹104₹157+5%
CPSEETF 2030₹67₹106₹170+7%
CPSEETF 2031₹65₹108₹182+8%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability CPSEETF goes up, or doubles?

54%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
58%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
7%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹199 within 5 years

The bull case for CPSEETF

  • Relatively low volatility (18%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹157.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹70.

CPSEETF volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years CPSEETF compounded at 3%/year with annualized volatility of 18%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹80₹128, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

CPSEETF price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.9%
80% range₹80–₹128
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
4.9%
80% range₹70–₹157
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)2%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
8.1%
80% range₹65–₹182
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)7%

CPSEETF price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
CPSEETF simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds CPSEETF hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the CPSEETF price target & forecast page.

CPSEETF MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CPSEETF with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST26.5%3.8×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST26.5%3.8×
DhanCHEAPEST26.5%3.8×

Compare every broker on the CPSEETF MTF page.

CPSEETF vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
CPSEETF (this stock)
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About CPSE ETF: sector, index & market-cap context

CPSE ETF (CPSEETF) is an NSE-listed company.

How the CPSEETF Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of CPSE ETF's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

CPSEETF analysis, FAQs

Is CPSE ETF (CPSEETF) a good buy?

On the numbers, CPSE ETF (CPSEETF) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is CPSEETF overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation ratios for CPSEETF are tracked live on Downstox.

What is the CPSEETF share price target for 2031?

CPSEETF's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹108, with an 80% range of ₹65₹182 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability CPSEETF doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of CPSEETF reaching ₹199 (2×) within 5 years is 7%.

What is the bull case for CPSEETF?

Relatively low volatility (18%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.

What are the risks in CPSEETF?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on CPSEETF