Case study

CREST

CREST

Tread carefully1y model -7.8%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

CREST (CREST) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is CREST a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

CREST (CREST) trades at ₹404,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100.

On the numbers, CREST (CREST) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing fairly valued at 24.8× earnings, ROE of 3.7%, a 42% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

CREST fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1,160 Cr
Current price
₹404
P/E ratio
24.8×
P/B ratio
0.88×
Book value
₹459
Dividend yield
0.25%
ROCE
5.7%
ROE
3.7%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is CREST overvalued? CREST P/E vs its sector

CREST's P/E of 24.8× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.25% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

CREST P/E
24.8×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
CREST div yield
0.25%
Peer median yield
1.65%

CREST share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of CREST history (1%/yr drift, 41%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
CREST 2027₹221₹371₹624-8%
CREST 2028₹164₹343₹720-15%
CREST 2029₹126₹314₹783-22%
CREST 2030₹102₹291₹814-28%
CREST 2031₹81₹266₹855-34%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability CREST goes up, or doubles?

42%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
33%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
11%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹804 within 5 years

The bull case for CREST

  • A 24.8× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • Low price-to-book of 0.88×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹783.

The bear case & risks

  • Return on equity is a soft 3.7%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 42% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹126.

CREST volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years CREST compounded at 1%/year with annualized volatility of 41%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹221₹624, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

CREST price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
7.8%
80% range₹221–₹624
P(price ↑)42%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
21.9%
80% range₹126–₹783
P(price ↑)36%
P(price 2×)9%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
33.8%
80% range₹81–₹855
P(price ↑)33%
P(price 2×)11%

CREST price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
CREST simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds CREST hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the CREST price target & forecast page.

CREST Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. CREST scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

CREST MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CREST with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
ZerodhaCHEAPEST50.0%2.0×

Compare every broker on the CREST MTF page.

CREST vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
CREST (this stock)24.8×0.25%₹1,160 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About CREST: sector, index & market-cap context

CREST (CREST) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,160 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the CREST Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of CREST's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

CREST analysis, FAQs

Is CREST (CREST) a good buy?

On the numbers, CREST (CREST) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing fairly valued at 24.8× earnings, ROE of 3.7%, a 42% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is CREST overvalued or undervalued?

CREST trades at 24.8× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the CREST share price target for 2031?

CREST's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹266, with an 80% range of ₹81₹855 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability CREST doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of CREST reaching ₹804 (2×) within 5 years is 11%.

What is the bull case for CREST?

A 24.8× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. Low price-to-book of 0.88×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in CREST?

Return on equity is a soft 3.7%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 42% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on CREST