CRISIL
Crisil
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Crisil (CRISIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is CRISIL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Crisil (CRISIL) trades at ₹4,224,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100.
On the numbers, Crisil (CRISIL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing premium at 36.8× earnings, ROE of 24.5%, a 43% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
CRISIL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is CRISIL overvalued? CRISIL P/E vs its sector
CRISIL's P/E of 36.8× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.59% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
CRISIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of CRISIL history (-1%/yr drift, 32%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRISIL 2027 | ₹2,589 | ₹3,881 | ₹5,779 | -6% |
| CRISIL 2028 | ₹2,088 | ₹3,667 | ₹6,443 | -11% |
| CRISIL 2029 | ₹1,756 | ₹3,447 | ₹6,948 | -17% |
| CRISIL 2030 | ₹1,459 | ₹3,223 | ₹7,240 | -22% |
| CRISIL 2031 | ₹1,243 | ₹3,068 | ₹7,549 | -26% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability CRISIL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for CRISIL
- High return on equity (24.5%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (32.6%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹6,948.
The bear case & risks
- At 36.8× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- A steep 10.2× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 43% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,756.
CRISIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years CRISIL compounded at -1%/year with annualized volatility of 32%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹2,589–₹5,779, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
CRISIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
CRISIL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds CRISIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the CRISIL price target & forecast page.
CRISIL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. CRISIL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
CRISIL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CRISIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 29.3% | 3.4× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 29.3% | 3.4× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 29.3% | 3.4× |
Compare every broker on the CRISIL MTF page.
Which ace investors hold CRISIL?
Held by 1 tracked superstar investor (from public NSE/BSE disclosures):
CRISIL vs peers,sector comparison
About Crisil: sector, index & market-cap context
Crisil (CRISIL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹30,876 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the CRISIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Crisil's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
CRISIL analysis, FAQs
Is Crisil (CRISIL) a good buy?
On the numbers, Crisil (CRISIL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing premium at 36.8× earnings, ROE of 24.5%, a 43% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is CRISIL overvalued or undervalued?
CRISIL trades at 36.8× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the CRISIL share price target for 2031?
CRISIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹3,068, with an 80% range of ₹1,243–₹7,549 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability CRISIL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of CRISIL reaching ₹8,264 (2×) within 5 years is 8%.
What is the bull case for CRISIL?
High return on equity (24.5%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (32.6%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in CRISIL?
At 36.8× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. A steep 10.2× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 43% chance of finishing above today's price.