Case study

DCAL

Dishman Carbo

High-risk on the numbers1y model -14.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Dishman Carbo (DCAL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is DCAL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Dishman Carbo (DCAL) trades at ₹173,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 20/100.

On the numbers, Dishman Carbo (DCAL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 20/100, weighing premium at 27.4× earnings, ROE of 1.6%, a 39% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

DCAL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2,713 Cr
Current price
₹173
P/E ratio
27.4×
P/B ratio
0.41×
Book value
₹426
ROCE
3.1%
ROE
1.6%
Piotroski F-Score
3/9

Is DCAL overvalued? DCAL P/E vs its sector

DCAL's P/E of 27.4× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.

DCAL P/E
27.4×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
Peer median yield
1.66%

DCAL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of DCAL history (-1%/yr drift, 56%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
DCAL 2027₹71₹146₹299-15%
DCAL 2028₹44₹124₹349-27%
DCAL 2029₹31₹103₹368-39%
DCAL 2030₹21₹90₹377-47%
DCAL 2031₹16₹74₹377-57%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability DCAL goes up, or doubles?

39%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
26%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
11%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹341 within 5 years

The bull case for DCAL

  • Low price-to-book of 0.41×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹368.

The bear case & risks

  • At 27.4× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • Return on equity is a soft 1.6%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 39% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • High historical volatility (56%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹31.

DCAL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years DCAL compounded at -1%/year with annualized volatility of 56%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹71₹299, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

DCAL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
14.5%
80% range₹71–₹299
P(price ↑)39%
P(price 2×)6%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
39.4%
80% range₹31–₹368
P(price ↑)31%
P(price 2×)11%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
56.8%
80% range₹16–₹377
P(price ↑)26%
P(price 2×)11%

DCAL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
DCAL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds DCAL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the DCAL price target & forecast page.

DCAL Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?

3/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. DCAL scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.

DCAL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy DCAL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST41.4%2.4×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST41.4%2.4×
DhanCHEAPEST41.4%2.4×

Compare every broker on the DCAL MTF page.

DCAL vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
DCAL (this stock)27.4×₹2,713 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Dishman Carbo: sector, index & market-cap context

Dishman Carbo (DCAL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹2,713 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the DCAL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Dishman Carbo's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

DCAL analysis, FAQs

Is Dishman Carbo (DCAL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Dishman Carbo (DCAL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 20/100, weighing premium at 27.4× earnings, ROE of 1.6%, a 39% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is DCAL overvalued or undervalued?

DCAL trades at 27.4× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the DCAL share price target for 2031?

DCAL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹74, with an 80% range of ₹16₹377 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability DCAL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of DCAL reaching ₹341 (2×) within 5 years is 11%.

What is the bull case for DCAL?

Low price-to-book of 0.41×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in DCAL?

At 27.4× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. Return on equity is a soft 1.6%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.

More on DCAL