Case study

DCMSHRIRAM

DCM Shriram

Mixed signals1y model -3.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

DCM Shriram (DCMSHRIRAM) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is DCMSHRIRAM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

DCM Shriram (DCMSHRIRAM) trades at ₹1,043,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100.

On the numbers, DCM Shriram (DCMSHRIRAM) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.6× earnings, ROE of 11.8%, a 46% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

DCMSHRIRAM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹16,232 Cr
Current price
₹1,043
P/E ratio
18.6×
P/B ratio
2.11×
Book value
₹495
Dividend yield
0.86%
ROCE
11.8%
ROE
11.8%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is DCMSHRIRAM overvalued? DCMSHRIRAM P/E vs its sector

DCMSHRIRAM's P/E of 18.6× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.86% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

DCMSHRIRAM P/E
18.6×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
DCMSHRIRAM div yield
0.86%
Peer median yield
1.65%

DCMSHRIRAM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of DCMSHRIRAM history (3%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
DCMSHRIRAM 2027₹637₹1,015₹1,606-4%
DCMSHRIRAM 2028₹498₹979₹1,909-7%
DCMSHRIRAM 2029₹410₹931₹2,133-12%
DCMSHRIRAM 2030₹349₹896₹2,315-15%
DCMSHRIRAM 2031₹303₹855₹2,397-19%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability DCMSHRIRAM goes up, or doubles?

46%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
40%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
13%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,107 within 5 years

The bull case for DCMSHRIRAM

  • A 18.6× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,133.

The bear case & risks

  • Return on equity is a soft 11.8%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹410.

DCMSHRIRAM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years DCMSHRIRAM compounded at 3%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹637₹1,606, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

DCMSHRIRAM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
3.6%
80% range₹637–₹1,606
P(price ↑)46%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
11.6%
80% range₹410–₹2,133
P(price ↑)42%
P(price 2×)10%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
18.8%
80% range₹303–₹2,397
P(price ↑)40%
P(price 2×)13%

DCMSHRIRAM price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
DCMSHRIRAM simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds DCMSHRIRAM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the DCMSHRIRAM price target & forecast page.

DCMSHRIRAM Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. DCMSHRIRAM scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

DCMSHRIRAM MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy DCMSHRIRAM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST31.6%3.2×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST31.6%3.2×
DhanCHEAPEST31.6%3.2×

Compare every broker on the DCMSHRIRAM MTF page.

DCMSHRIRAM vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
DCMSHRIRAM (this stock)18.6×0.86%₹16,232 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About DCM Shriram: sector, index & market-cap context

DCM Shriram (DCMSHRIRAM) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹16,232 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the DCMSHRIRAM Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of DCM Shriram's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

DCMSHRIRAM analysis, FAQs

Is DCM Shriram (DCMSHRIRAM) a good buy?

On the numbers, DCM Shriram (DCMSHRIRAM) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.6× earnings, ROE of 11.8%, a 46% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is DCMSHRIRAM overvalued or undervalued?

DCMSHRIRAM trades at 18.6× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the DCMSHRIRAM share price target for 2031?

DCMSHRIRAM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹855, with an 80% range of ₹303₹2,397 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability DCMSHRIRAM doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of DCMSHRIRAM reaching ₹2,107 (2×) within 5 years is 13%.

What is the bull case for DCMSHRIRAM?

A 18.6× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.

What are the risks in DCMSHRIRAM?

Return on equity is a soft 11.8%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.

More on DCMSHRIRAM