Case study

DEEPAKFERT

Deepak Fertilizers & Petr

Tread carefully1y model +36.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Deepak Fertilizers & Petr (DEEPAKFERT) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is DEEPAKFERT a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Deepak Fertilizers & Petr (DEEPAKFERT) trades at ₹1,603,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 42/100.

On the numbers, Deepak Fertilizers & Petr (DEEPAKFERT) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 42/100, weighing premium at 27.5× earnings, ROE of 11.3%, a 74% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

DEEPAKFERT fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹20,265 Cr
Current price
₹1,603
P/E ratio
27.5×
P/B ratio
2.96×
Book value
₹542
Dividend yield
0.62%
ROCE
11.6%
ROE
11.3%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is DEEPAKFERT overvalued? DEEPAKFERT P/E vs its sector

DEEPAKFERT's P/E of 27.5× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.62% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

DEEPAKFERT P/E
27.5×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
DEEPAKFERT div yield
0.62%
Peer median yield
1.65%

DEEPAKFERT share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of DEEPAKFERT history (43%/yr drift, 47%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
DEEPAKFERT 2027₹1,162₹2,131₹3,922+36%
DEEPAKFERT 2028₹1,258₹2,950₹6,979+89%
DEEPAKFERT 2029₹1,413₹4,081₹11,510+161%
DEEPAKFERT 2030₹1,635₹5,517₹18,184+253%
DEEPAKFERT 2031₹1,970₹7,526₹28,728+381%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability DEEPAKFERT goes up, or doubles?

74%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
93%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
80%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹3,127 within 5 years

The bull case for DEEPAKFERT

  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 74% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹2,131 (+36%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹11,510.

The bear case & risks

  • At 27.5× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • Return on equity is a soft 11.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • High historical volatility (47%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,413.

DEEPAKFERT volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years DEEPAKFERT compounded at 43%/year with annualized volatility of 47%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,162₹3,922, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

DEEPAKFERT price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
36.3%
80% range₹1,162–₹3,922
P(price ↑)74%
P(price 2×)21%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
161.0%
80% range₹1,413–₹11,510
P(price ↑)88%
P(price 2×)63%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
381.4%
80% range₹1,970–₹28,728
P(price ↑)93%
P(price 2×)80%

DEEPAKFERT price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
DEEPAKFERT simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds DEEPAKFERT hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the DEEPAKFERT price target & forecast page.

DEEPAKFERT Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. DEEPAKFERT scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

DEEPAKFERT MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy DEEPAKFERT with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST36.0%2.8×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST36.0%2.8×
DhanCHEAPEST36.0%2.8×

Compare every broker on the DEEPAKFERT MTF page.

DEEPAKFERT vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
DEEPAKFERT (this stock)27.5×0.62%₹20,265 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Deepak Fertilizers & Petr: sector, index & market-cap context

Deepak Fertilizers & Petr (DEEPAKFERT) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹20,265 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the DEEPAKFERT Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Deepak Fertilizers & Petr's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

DEEPAKFERT analysis, FAQs

Is Deepak Fertilizers & Petr (DEEPAKFERT) a good buy?

On the numbers, Deepak Fertilizers & Petr (DEEPAKFERT) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 42/100, weighing premium at 27.5× earnings, ROE of 11.3%, a 74% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is DEEPAKFERT overvalued or undervalued?

DEEPAKFERT trades at 27.5× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the DEEPAKFERT share price target for 2031?

DEEPAKFERT's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹7,526, with an 80% range of ₹1,970₹28,728 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability DEEPAKFERT doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of DEEPAKFERT reaching ₹3,127 (2×) within 5 years is 80%.

What is the bull case for DEEPAKFERT?

A 10,000-path probability model puts a 74% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹2,131 (+36%).

What are the risks in DEEPAKFERT?

At 27.5× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. Return on equity is a soft 11.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. High historical volatility (47%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on DEEPAKFERT