Case study

DEN

DEN

Tread carefully1y model -28.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

DEN (DEN) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is DEN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

DEN (DEN) trades at ₹33,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100.

On the numbers, DEN (DEN) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing inexpensive at 9.5× earnings, ROE of 4.5%, a 17% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

DEN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1,574 Cr
Current price
₹33
P/E ratio
9.5×
P/B ratio
0.42×
Book value
₹79
ROCE
5.6%
ROE
4.5%
Piotroski F-Score
3/9

Is DEN overvalued? DEN P/E vs its sector

DEN's P/E of 9.5× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers.

DEN P/E
9.5×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
Peer median yield
1.66%

DEN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of DEN history (-27%/yr drift, 35%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
DEN 2027₹15₹24₹37-29%
DEN 2028₹9₹17₹32-49%
DEN 2029₹6₹12₹26-64%
DEN 2030₹3₹9₹21-74%
DEN 2031₹2₹6₹17-81%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability DEN goes up, or doubles?

17%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
2%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
0%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹66 within 5 years

The bull case for DEN

  • Trades at just 9.5× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • Low price-to-book of 0.42×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹26.

The bear case & risks

  • Return on equity is a soft 4.5%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 17% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹6.

DEN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years DEN compounded at -27%/year with annualized volatility of 35%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹15₹37, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

DEN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
28.6%
80% range₹15–₹37
P(price ↑)17%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
63.8%
80% range₹6–₹26
P(price ↑)5%
P(price 2×)0%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
81.1%
80% range₹2–₹17
P(price ↑)2%
P(price 2×)0%

DEN price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
DEN simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds DEN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the DEN price target & forecast page.

DEN Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?

3/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. DEN scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.

DEN MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy DEN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
DhanCHEAPEST40.0%2.5×

Compare every broker on the DEN MTF page.

DEN vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
DEN (this stock)9.5×₹1,574 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About DEN: sector, index & market-cap context

DEN (DEN) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,574 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the DEN Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of DEN's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

DEN analysis, FAQs

Is DEN (DEN) a good buy?

On the numbers, DEN (DEN) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing inexpensive at 9.5× earnings, ROE of 4.5%, a 17% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is DEN overvalued or undervalued?

DEN trades at 9.5× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the DEN share price target for 2031?

DEN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹6, with an 80% range of ₹2₹17 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability DEN doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of DEN reaching ₹66 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.

What is the bull case for DEN?

Trades at just 9.5× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 0.42×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in DEN?

Return on equity is a soft 4.5%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 17% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on DEN