Case study

DMART

AVENUE SUPERMARTS LIMITED

Mixed signals1y model +9.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

49Score

AVENUE SUPERMARTS LIMITED (DMART) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is DMART a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

AVENUE SUPERMARTS LIMITED (DMART) trades at ₹3,900,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100.

On the numbers, AVENUE SUPERMARTS LIMITED (DMART) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing expensive at 83.2× earnings, ROE of 12.9%, a 63% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

DMART fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2.54L Cr
Current price
₹3,900
P/E ratio
83.2×
P/B ratio
10.40×
Book value
₹375
ROCE
17.2%
ROE
12.9%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How DMART ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is DMART overvalued? DMART P/E vs peers

DMART trades at 83.2× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

DMART share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.2y of DMART history (20%/yr drift, 28%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
DMART 2027₹2,965₹4,271₹6,151+10%
DMART 2028₹2,840₹4,677₹7,700+20%
DMART 2029₹2,778₹5,121₹9,440+31%
DMART 2030₹2,748₹5,608₹11,443+44%
DMART 2031₹2,800₹6,141₹13,466+57%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability DMART goes up, or doubles?

63%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
77%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
35%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹7,800 within 5 years

The bull case for DMART

  • DMART's return on equity of 12.9% ranks in the 63rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 63% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹4,271 (+10%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹9,440.

The bear case & risks

  • DMART's P/E of 83.2x is lower than 14% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 10.4× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹2,778.

DMART volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.2 years DMART compounded at 20%/year with annualized volatility of 28%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹2,965-₹6,151, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

DMART price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.2 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
9.5%
80% range₹2,965-₹6,151
P(price ↑)63%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
31.3%
80% range₹2,778-₹9,440
P(price ↑)71%
P(price 2×)19%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
57.5%
80% range₹2,800-₹13,466
P(price ↑)77%
P(price 2×)35%

DMART price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
DMART simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds DMART hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the DMART price target & forecast page.

DMART Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. DMART scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

DMART MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy DMART with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox24.48%4.1×
Zerodha23.80%4.2×
Groww23.86%4.2×
Dhan22.00%4.5×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST20.96%4.8×
Paytm Money21.06%4.7×
Pocketful28.05%3.6×
Fyers27.78%3.6×
Anand Rathi27.96%3.6×
Bajaj Broking22.00%4.5×
Share India28.03%3.6×

Compare every broker on the DMART MTF page.

Which ace investors hold DMART?

Held by 1 tracked superstar investor (from public NSE/BSE disclosures):

About AVENUE SUPERMARTS LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

AVENUE SUPERMARTS LIMITED (DMART) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Retail sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹2.54L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the DMART Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of AVENUE SUPERMARTS LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

DMART analysis, FAQs

Is AVENUE SUPERMARTS LIMITED (DMART) a good buy?

On the numbers, AVENUE SUPERMARTS LIMITED (DMART) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing expensive at 83.2× earnings, ROE of 12.9%, a 63% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is DMART overvalued or undervalued?

DMART trades at 83.2× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the DMART share price target for 2031?

DMART's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹6,141, with an 80% range of ₹2,800-₹13,466 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability DMART doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of DMART reaching ₹7,800 (2×) within 5 years is 35%.

What is the bull case for DMART?

DMART's return on equity of 12.9% ranks in the 63rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 63% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹4,271 (+10%).

What are the risks in DMART?

DMART's P/E of 83.2x is lower than 14% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 10.4× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on DMART