Case study

DODLA

Dodla Dairy

Mixed signals1y model -2.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Dodla Dairy (DODLA) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is DODLA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Dodla Dairy (DODLA) trades at ₹1,136,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100.

On the numbers, Dodla Dairy (DODLA) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing premium at 25.5× earnings, ROE of 17.5%, a 47% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

DODLA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹6,855 Cr
Current price
₹1,136
P/E ratio
25.5×
P/B ratio
4.09×
Book value
₹278
Dividend yield
0.44%
ROCE
18.0%
ROE
17.5%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is DODLA overvalued? DODLA P/E vs its sector

DODLA's P/E of 25.5× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.44% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

DODLA P/E
25.5×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
DODLA div yield
0.44%
Peer median yield
1.65%

DODLA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of DODLA history (3%/yr drift, 35%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
DODLA 2027₹694₹1,084₹1,708-2%
DODLA 2028₹558₹1,048₹1,974-5%
DODLA 2029₹471₹1,028₹2,230-7%
DODLA 2030₹404₹999₹2,441-10%
DODLA 2031₹348₹967₹2,603-13%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability DODLA goes up, or doubles?

47%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
43%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
14%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,218 within 5 years

The bull case for DODLA

  • A healthy 17.5% return on equity.
  • Strong ROCE (18.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,230.

The bear case & risks

  • At 25.5× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹471.

DODLA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years DODLA compounded at 3%/year with annualized volatility of 35%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹694₹1,708, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

DODLA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
2.2%
80% range₹694–₹1,708
P(price ↑)47%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
7.3%
80% range₹471–₹2,230
P(price ↑)45%
P(price 2×)10%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
12.8%
80% range₹348–₹2,603
P(price ↑)43%
P(price 2×)14%

DODLA price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
DODLA simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds DODLA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the DODLA price target & forecast page.

DODLA Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. DODLA scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

DODLA MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy DODLA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.0%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST31.1%3.2×
DhanCHEAPEST31.1%3.2×

Compare every broker on the DODLA MTF page.

DODLA vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
DODLA (this stock)25.5×0.44%₹6,855 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Dodla Dairy: sector, index & market-cap context

Dodla Dairy (DODLA) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹6,855 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the DODLA Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Dodla Dairy's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

DODLA analysis, FAQs

Is Dodla Dairy (DODLA) a good buy?

On the numbers, Dodla Dairy (DODLA) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing premium at 25.5× earnings, ROE of 17.5%, a 47% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is DODLA overvalued or undervalued?

DODLA trades at 25.5× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the DODLA share price target for 2031?

DODLA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹967, with an 80% range of ₹348₹2,603 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability DODLA doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of DODLA reaching ₹2,218 (2×) within 5 years is 14%.

What is the bull case for DODLA?

A healthy 17.5% return on equity. Strong ROCE (18.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in DODLA?

At 25.5× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.

More on DODLA