Case study

EFCIL

EFC (I) LIMITED

Screens attractive1y model +3.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

71Score

EFC (I) LIMITED (EFCIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is EFCIL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

EFC (I) LIMITED (EFCIL) trades at ₹186,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 71/100.

On the numbers, EFC (I) LIMITED (EFCIL) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 71/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.7× earnings, ROE of 34.3%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

EFCIL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2,752 Cr
Current price
₹186
P/E ratio
10.7×
P/B ratio
3.41×
Book value
₹55
ROCE
19.8%
ROE
34.3%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How EFCIL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is EFCIL overvalued? EFCIL P/E vs peers

EFCIL trades at 10.7× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

EFCIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of EFCIL history (37%/yr drift, 50%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
EFCIL 2027₹103₹193₹363+4%
EFCIL 2028₹80₹200₹503+7%
EFCIL 2029₹70₹207₹618+11%
EFCIL 2030₹60₹215₹775+15%
EFCIL 2031₹53₹223₹931+20%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability EFCIL goes up, or doubles?

53%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
56%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
33%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹373 within 5 years

The bull case for EFCIL

  • EFCIL's P/E of 10.7x is lower than 85% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • EFCIL's return on equity of 34.3% ranks in the top 4% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • EFCIL's return on capital employed of 19.8% ranks in the 80th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹618.

The bear case & risks

  • High historical volatility (50%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹70.

EFCIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years EFCIL compounded at 37%/year with annualized volatility of 50%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹103-₹363, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

EFCIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
3.6%
80% range₹103-₹363
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)9%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
11.3%
80% range₹70-₹618
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)25%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
19.5%
80% range₹53-₹931
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)33%

EFCIL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
EFCIL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds EFCIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the EFCIL price target & forecast page.

EFCIL Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. EFCIL scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

EFCIL MTF margin & leverage across 8 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy EFCIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 8 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox36.68%2.7×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST36.64%2.7×
Groww36.87%2.7×
Dhan40.00%2.5×
Kotak Neo100.00%1.0×
Paytm Money42.68%2.3×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST36.64%2.7×
Share India36.82%2.7×

Compare every broker on the EFCIL MTF page.

About EFC (I) LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

EFC (I) LIMITED (EFCIL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹2,752 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the EFCIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of EFC (I) LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

EFCIL analysis, FAQs

Is EFC (I) LIMITED (EFCIL) a good buy?

On the numbers, EFC (I) LIMITED (EFCIL) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 71/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.7× earnings, ROE of 34.3%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is EFCIL overvalued or undervalued?

EFCIL trades at 10.7× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the EFCIL share price target for 2031?

EFCIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹223, with an 80% range of ₹53-₹931 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability EFCIL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of EFCIL reaching ₹373 (2×) within 5 years is 33%.

What is the bull case for EFCIL?

EFCIL's P/E of 10.7x is lower than 85% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. EFCIL's return on equity of 34.3% ranks in the top 4% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. EFCIL's return on capital employed of 19.8% ranks in the 80th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in EFCIL?

High historical volatility (50%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on EFCIL