ELECTCAST
Electrosteel Castings
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Electrosteel Castings (ELECTCAST) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is ELECTCAST a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Electrosteel Castings (ELECTCAST) trades at ₹83,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100.
On the numbers, Electrosteel Castings (ELECTCAST) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing premium at 27.2× earnings, ROE of 3.2%, a 15% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
ELECTCAST fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is ELECTCAST overvalued? ELECTCAST P/E vs its sector
ELECTCAST's P/E of 27.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.68% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.
ELECTCAST share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of ELECTCAST history (-40%/yr drift, 50%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELECTCAST 2027 | ₹25 | ₹49 | ₹92 | -40% |
| ELECTCAST 2028 | ₹12 | ₹29 | ₹69 | -65% |
| ELECTCAST 2029 | ₹6 | ₹17 | ₹51 | -79% |
| ELECTCAST 2030 | ₹3 | ₹10 | ₹35 | -88% |
| ELECTCAST 2031 | ₹1 | ₹6 | ₹24 | -93% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability ELECTCAST goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for ELECTCAST
- Low price-to-book of 0.87×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹51.
The bear case & risks
- At 27.2× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- Return on equity is a soft 3.2%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 15% chance of finishing above today's price.
- High historical volatility (50%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹6.
ELECTCAST volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years ELECTCAST compounded at -40%/year with annualized volatility of 50%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹25–₹92, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
ELECTCAST price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
ELECTCAST price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds ELECTCAST hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the ELECTCAST price target & forecast page.
ELECTCAST Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. ELECTCAST scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
ELECTCAST MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ELECTCAST with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 38.9% | 2.6× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 38.9% | 2.6× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 38.9% | 2.6× |
Compare every broker on the ELECTCAST MTF page.
ELECTCAST vs peers,sector comparison
About Electrosteel Castings: sector, index & market-cap context
Electrosteel Castings (ELECTCAST) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹5,151 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the ELECTCAST Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Electrosteel Castings's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
ELECTCAST analysis, FAQs
Is Electrosteel Castings (ELECTCAST) a good buy?
On the numbers, Electrosteel Castings (ELECTCAST) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing premium at 27.2× earnings, ROE of 3.2%, a 15% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is ELECTCAST overvalued or undervalued?
ELECTCAST trades at 27.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the ELECTCAST share price target for 2031?
ELECTCAST's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹6, with an 80% range of ₹1–₹24 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability ELECTCAST doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of ELECTCAST reaching ₹163 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for ELECTCAST?
Low price-to-book of 0.87×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in ELECTCAST?
At 27.2× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. Return on equity is a soft 3.2%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 15% chance of finishing above today's price.