Case study

ELECTCAST

Electrosteel Castings

High-risk on the numbers1y model -40.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Electrosteel Castings (ELECTCAST) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is ELECTCAST a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Electrosteel Castings (ELECTCAST) trades at ₹83,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100.

On the numbers, Electrosteel Castings (ELECTCAST) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing premium at 27.2× earnings, ROE of 3.2%, a 15% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

ELECTCAST fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹5,151 Cr
Current price
₹83
P/E ratio
27.2×
P/B ratio
0.87×
Book value
₹96
Dividend yield
1.68%
ROCE
5.2%
ROE
3.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is ELECTCAST overvalued? ELECTCAST P/E vs its sector

ELECTCAST's P/E of 27.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.68% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.

ELECTCAST P/E
27.2×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
ELECTCAST div yield
1.68%
Peer median yield
1.67%

ELECTCAST share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of ELECTCAST history (-40%/yr drift, 50%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
ELECTCAST 2027₹25₹49₹92-40%
ELECTCAST 2028₹12₹29₹69-65%
ELECTCAST 2029₹6₹17₹51-79%
ELECTCAST 2030₹3₹10₹35-88%
ELECTCAST 2031₹1₹6₹24-93%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability ELECTCAST goes up, or doubles?

15%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
1%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
0%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹163 within 5 years

The bull case for ELECTCAST

  • Low price-to-book of 0.87×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹51.

The bear case & risks

  • At 27.2× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • Return on equity is a soft 3.2%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 15% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • High historical volatility (50%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹6.

ELECTCAST volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years ELECTCAST compounded at -40%/year with annualized volatility of 50%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹25₹92, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

ELECTCAST price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
40.3%
80% range₹25–₹92
P(price ↑)15%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
79.3%
80% range₹6–₹51
P(price ↑)3%
P(price 2×)0%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
92.8%
80% range₹1–₹24
P(price ↑)1%
P(price 2×)0%

ELECTCAST price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
ELECTCAST simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds ELECTCAST hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the ELECTCAST price target & forecast page.

ELECTCAST Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. ELECTCAST scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

ELECTCAST MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ELECTCAST with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST38.9%2.6×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST38.9%2.6×
DhanCHEAPEST38.9%2.6×

Compare every broker on the ELECTCAST MTF page.

ELECTCAST vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
ELECTCAST (this stock)27.2×1.68%₹5,151 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Electrosteel Castings: sector, index & market-cap context

Electrosteel Castings (ELECTCAST) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹5,151 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the ELECTCAST Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Electrosteel Castings's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

ELECTCAST analysis, FAQs

Is Electrosteel Castings (ELECTCAST) a good buy?

On the numbers, Electrosteel Castings (ELECTCAST) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing premium at 27.2× earnings, ROE of 3.2%, a 15% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is ELECTCAST overvalued or undervalued?

ELECTCAST trades at 27.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the ELECTCAST share price target for 2031?

ELECTCAST's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹6, with an 80% range of ₹1₹24 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability ELECTCAST doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of ELECTCAST reaching ₹163 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.

What is the bull case for ELECTCAST?

Low price-to-book of 0.87×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in ELECTCAST?

At 27.2× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. Return on equity is a soft 3.2%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 15% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on ELECTCAST