Case study

ELGIEQUIP

Elgi Equipments

Mixed signals1y model -17.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Elgi Equipments (ELGIEQUIP) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is ELGIEQUIP a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Elgi Equipments (ELGIEQUIP) trades at ₹614,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100.

On the numbers, Elgi Equipments (ELGIEQUIP) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100, weighing expensive at 44.1× earnings, ROE of 21.5%, a 31% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

ELGIEQUIP fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹19,474 Cr
Current price
₹614
P/E ratio
44.1×
P/B ratio
8.72×
Book value
₹70
Dividend yield
0.44%
ROCE
23.7%
ROE
21.5%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is ELGIEQUIP overvalued? ELGIEQUIP P/E vs its sector

ELGIEQUIP's P/E of 44.1× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.44% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

ELGIEQUIP P/E
44.1×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
ELGIEQUIP div yield
0.44%
Peer median yield
1.65%

ELGIEQUIP share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of ELGIEQUIP history (-12%/yr drift, 38%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
ELGIEQUIP 2027₹311₹505₹828-18%
ELGIEQUIP 2028₹208₹416₹838-32%
ELGIEQUIP 2029₹146₹347₹822-43%
ELGIEQUIP 2030₹105₹286₹776-53%
ELGIEQUIP 2031₹78₹235₹719-62%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability ELGIEQUIP goes up, or doubles?

31%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
14%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
3%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,226 within 5 years

The bull case for ELGIEQUIP

  • High return on equity (21.5%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (23.7%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹822.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 44.1× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • A steep 8.7× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 31% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹146.

ELGIEQUIP volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years ELGIEQUIP compounded at -12%/year with annualized volatility of 38%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹311₹828, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

ELGIEQUIP price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
17.5%
80% range₹311–₹828
P(price ↑)31%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
43.4%
80% range₹146–₹822
P(price ↑)20%
P(price 2×)3%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
61.6%
80% range₹78–₹719
P(price ↑)14%
P(price 2×)3%

ELGIEQUIP price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
ELGIEQUIP simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds ELGIEQUIP hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the ELGIEQUIP price target & forecast page.

ELGIEQUIP Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. ELGIEQUIP scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

ELGIEQUIP MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ELGIEQUIP with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST32.5%3.1×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST32.5%3.1×
DhanCHEAPEST32.5%3.1×

Compare every broker on the ELGIEQUIP MTF page.

ELGIEQUIP vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
ELGIEQUIP (this stock)44.1×0.44%₹19,474 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Elgi Equipments: sector, index & market-cap context

Elgi Equipments (ELGIEQUIP) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹19,474 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the ELGIEQUIP Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Elgi Equipments's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

ELGIEQUIP analysis, FAQs

Is Elgi Equipments (ELGIEQUIP) a good buy?

On the numbers, Elgi Equipments (ELGIEQUIP) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100, weighing expensive at 44.1× earnings, ROE of 21.5%, a 31% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is ELGIEQUIP overvalued or undervalued?

ELGIEQUIP trades at 44.1× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the ELGIEQUIP share price target for 2031?

ELGIEQUIP's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹235, with an 80% range of ₹78₹719 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability ELGIEQUIP doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of ELGIEQUIP reaching ₹1,226 (2×) within 5 years is 3%.

What is the bull case for ELGIEQUIP?

High return on equity (21.5%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (23.7%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in ELGIEQUIP?

A rich 44.1× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 8.7× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 31% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on ELGIEQUIP