Case study

EMCURE

EMCURE PHARMACEUTICALS L

Worth a closer look1y model +8.1%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

EMCURE PHARMACEUTICALS L (EMCURE) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is EMCURE a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

EMCURE PHARMACEUTICALS L (EMCURE) trades at ₹1,791,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100.

On the numbers, EMCURE PHARMACEUTICALS L (EMCURE) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100, weighing premium at 36.0× earnings, ROE of 20.1%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

EMCURE fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹34,005 Cr
Current price
₹1,791
P/E ratio
36.0×
P/B ratio
6.86×
Book value
₹261
Dividend yield
0.17%
ROCE
24.0%
ROE
20.1%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is EMCURE overvalued? EMCURE P/E vs its sector

EMCURE's P/E of 36.0× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.17% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

EMCURE P/E
36.0×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
EMCURE div yield
0.17%
Peer median yield
1.65%

EMCURE share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.9y of EMCURE history (14%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
EMCURE 2027₹1,201₹1,920₹3,083+8%
EMCURE 2028₹1,070₹2,060₹4,037+16%
EMCURE 2029₹982₹2,218₹5,035+25%
EMCURE 2030₹929₹2,371₹6,111+34%
EMCURE 2031₹909₹2,553₹7,349+44%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability EMCURE goes up, or doubles?

58%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
67%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
35%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹3,552 within 5 years

The bull case for EMCURE

  • High return on equity (20.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (24.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹5,035.

The bear case & risks

  • At 36.0× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹982.

EMCURE volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 1.9 years EMCURE compounded at 14%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,201₹3,083, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

EMCURE price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 1.9 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
8.1%
80% range₹1,201–₹3,083
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
24.9%
80% range₹982–₹5,035
P(price ↑)64%
P(price 2×)24%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
43.7%
80% range₹909–₹7,349
P(price ↑)67%
P(price 2×)35%

EMCURE price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
EMCURE simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds EMCURE hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the EMCURE price target & forecast page.

EMCURE Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. EMCURE scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

EMCURE MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy EMCURE with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST31.3%3.2×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST31.3%3.2×
DhanCHEAPEST31.3%3.2×

Compare every broker on the EMCURE MTF page.

EMCURE vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
EMCURE (this stock)36.0×0.17%₹34,005 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About EMCURE PHARMACEUTICALS L: sector, index & market-cap context

EMCURE PHARMACEUTICALS L (EMCURE) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹34,005 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the EMCURE Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of EMCURE PHARMACEUTICALS L's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

EMCURE analysis, FAQs

Is EMCURE PHARMACEUTICALS L (EMCURE) a good buy?

On the numbers, EMCURE PHARMACEUTICALS L (EMCURE) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100, weighing premium at 36.0× earnings, ROE of 20.1%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is EMCURE overvalued or undervalued?

EMCURE trades at 36.0× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the EMCURE share price target for 2031?

EMCURE's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,553, with an 80% range of ₹909₹7,349 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability EMCURE doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of EMCURE reaching ₹3,552 (2×) within 5 years is 35%.

What is the bull case for EMCURE?

High return on equity (20.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (24.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in EMCURE?

At 36.0× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.

More on EMCURE