Case study

EPL

EPL Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +1.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

EPL Limited (EPL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is EPL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

EPL Limited (EPL) trades at ₹235,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.

On the numbers, EPL Limited (EPL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.2× earnings, ROE of 15.8%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

EPL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹7,504 Cr
Current price
₹235
P/E ratio
18.2×
P/B ratio
2.63×
Book value
₹89
Dividend yield
2.13%
ROCE
17.8%
ROE
15.8%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is EPL overvalued? EPL P/E vs its sector

EPL's P/E of 18.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 2.13% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.

EPL P/E
18.2×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
EPL div yield
2.13%
Peer median yield
1.67%

EPL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of EPL history (9%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
EPL 2027₹145₹233₹378+1%
EPL 2028₹121₹240₹476+5%
EPL 2029₹106₹244₹565+6%
EPL 2030₹97₹249₹657+8%
EPL 2031₹88₹254₹752+11%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability EPL goes up, or doubles?

51%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
55%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
24%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹459 within 5 years

The bull case for EPL

  • A 18.2× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • A healthy 15.8% return on equity.
  • Pays a 2.1% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹565.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹106.

EPL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years EPL compounded at 9%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹145₹378, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

EPL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.4%
80% range₹145–₹378
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)4%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
6.4%
80% range₹106–₹565
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)16%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
10.7%
80% range₹88–₹752
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)24%

EPL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
EPL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds EPL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the EPL price target & forecast page.

EPL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. EPL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

EPL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy EPL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.0%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST31.4%3.2×
DhanCHEAPEST31.4%3.2×

Compare every broker on the EPL MTF page.

EPL vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
EPL (this stock)18.2×2.13%₹7,504 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About EPL Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

EPL Limited (EPL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹7,504 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the EPL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of EPL Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

EPL analysis, FAQs

Is EPL Limited (EPL) a good buy?

On the numbers, EPL Limited (EPL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.2× earnings, ROE of 15.8%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is EPL overvalued or undervalued?

EPL trades at 18.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the EPL share price target for 2031?

EPL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹254, with an 80% range of ₹88₹752 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability EPL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of EPL reaching ₹459 (2×) within 5 years is 24%.

What is the bull case for EPL?

A 18.2× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A healthy 15.8% return on equity. Pays a 2.1% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.

What are the risks in EPL?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on EPL